Zach Edey NBA Draft projection, scouting report, and finest groups for Purdue middle

Zach Edey was by no means speculated to be a generational school basketball star. For many of his life, he didn’t even wish to play the game.

Edey performed hockey and baseball rising up in Toronto. By the point he graduated eighth grade, he was already 6’10. To that time in his life, he had by no means performed basketball. Edey first picked up the game as a highschool sophomore standing practically 7’2. He ultimately transferred to prep powerhouse IMG Academy in Florida, however nonetheless didn’t entice a lot hype on the recruiting path.

When he dedicated to Purdue, Edey was ranked because the No. 436 participant in his class, per 247 Sports activities.

Now a senior for the Boilermakers, Edey is essentially the most embellished males’s school hooper in additional than 4 a long time. He’s poised to grow to be the primary back-to-back nationwide participant of the 12 months since Ralph Sampson in 1982-1983. For all of his dominance, Edey’s school profession has up to now been outlined by a recreation his workforce misplaced. Purdue turned the second No. 1 seed ever eradicated by a No. 16 seed in the course of the 2023 NCAA match. Edey returned to high school on a mission to eradicate that reminiscence and lead Purdue to its first nationwide championship in program historical past.

Edey and the Boilermakers have been laser centered from the very begin of the season. Purdue tore by a non-conference schedule that included wins over 5 eventual Candy 16 groups: Tennessee, Marquette, Arizona, Gonzaga, and Alabama. Add in a 2-0 report towards one from their very own convention, Illinois, and Purdue primarily aced an especially tough schedule. Edey was their singular star the complete means, by some means besting his not possible manufacturing from his junior 12 months to actually etch his identify among the many sport’s all-time legends.

Purdue is now within the Candy 16. As he enters school basketball’s greatest stage, Edey’s translation to the NBA has grow to be a sizzling matter. I by no means seen Edey as a primary spherical decide earlier than this season, however I’ve softened that stance this 12 months. Coming into the match, our newest mock draft had Edey going No. 18 total to the Phoenix Suns within the 2024 NBA Draft. That’s the best finish of his draft inventory, which stretches to the early second spherical. Both means, Edey will get each alternative to show he belongs within the NBA.

Let’s dive into the case for Edey as a primary spherical draft decide, why he’s one of the vital polarizing prospects on this 12 months’s class, and the way his recreation may finally translate to the best degree on the planet.

Zach Edey would be the greatest participant within the NBA

Edey’s signature high quality is his immense measurement. He’s listed at 7’4, 300 kilos, with a 7’10.5 wingspan. His standing attain is 9’7.5. That compares very favorably towards the NBA’s greatest gamers.

Edey might be tied with Victor Wembanyama and Boban Marjanovic because the tallest participant within the NBA subsequent season. He’ll surpass Jusuf Nurkic (290 kilos) because the heaviest participant within the league. He could have the league’s second longest wingspan behind Wembanyama’s 8-foot wingspan.

It’s good to be huge as a basketball participant! In fact, measurement doesn’t imply every thing within the NBA. Tacko Fall measured at 7’6 with an 8’4 wingspan and 10’2 standing attain, and couldn’t reduce it within the league. Mo Bamba had elite measurements because the No. 6 decide within the 2018 NBA Draft and by no means lived as much as the hype. Nonetheless, Edey’s measurement is a function, not a bug, for his NBA translation. In contrast to these guys, Edey is legitimately among the best school basketball gamers of the final 40 years.

Zach Edey is traditionally productive

Field-score plus/minus is an all-in-one metric that “estimates a basketball participant’s contribution to the workforce when that participant is on the court docket.” It’s not an ideal stat, nevertheless it’s one of many higher public metrics for capturing particular person efficiency.

Edey has two of the most effective single-season rankings ever for BPM because it began being tracked within the 2010-11 season. Right here’s the listing:

Nearly all of gamers on this listing had good NBA careers. There are two stars (Williamson and Davis), one budding star (Holmgren), and one former star whose prime was reduce quick by accidents (Oladipo). Delon Wright has been a strong position participant for a decade, and Brandon Clark and Jackson-Davis are on an analogous paths for the Grizzlies and Warriors respectively. Keegan Murray is monitoring as way more than a job participant for the Kings. There are additionally a number of busts on right here, however nonetheless: it’s a fairly good listing to be on, particularly with two elite seasons like Edey.

PER is one other imperfect all-in-one metric that captures participant efficiency and has been round ceaselessly because of John Hollinger. Based on RealGM’s calculations, there have solely been 5 seasons within the trendy period of a PER above 40. Edey has three of them.

To place that in context, a PER of 20 is usually NBA All-Star degree. The truth that Edey has three seasons double that’s simply completely wild.

Zach Edey tasks as a dynamic play finisher

Edey can dunk the hell out of the ball. He presently has 102 dunks this 12 months, per Bart Torvik. Nobody else within the nation even has 90 dunks, and solely three gamers had greater than 80.

Edey persistently wins the battle for publish place inside along with his 300-pound body. Tennessee middle James Aidoo has NBA-like measurement at 6’11, 240 kilos with a 7-4 wingspan, and he has no probability to stopping Edey one-on-one.

The NBA’s longer three-point arc will give Edey much more area for his deep publish touches. He’s very snug spinning proper, and will get off the bottom with strong quickness for a participant his measurement.

Edey has continued to enhance his conditioning in his senior 12 months, and it exhibits up in his willingness to dunk the ball. There have been instances final season when he settled for a decrease share layup as a result of he was too drained to complete robust with a flush. He has 26 extra dunks this season than he did 12 months in the past getting into the Candy 16.

If he’s shut sufficient to the basket, Edey goes to do every thing can to dunk it.

Edey can also be going to punish switches, even towards greater, stronger, and older NBA gamers. Forcing a guard to modify onto Edey is benefit creation in its personal means. For nearly as good as Purdue has been at getting into the ball into him, the additional spacing and superior expertise and creativity of NBA passers ought to improve the sorts of deliveries he’s getting when he has a mismatch.

Edey proved his motor was excellent all 12 months. Among the best issues you possibly can say about him is that he performs as much as his measurement.

Zach Edey is an offensive rebound vacuum

Edey was No. 1 in offensive rebound price for all of DI as a sophomore. He was No. 1 as a junior, too. This season, he slipped — and was merely No. 3 within the nation. He has three of the top-20 seasons in offensive rebound price since 2008. The numbers present him to be an all-time nice glass cleaner when his workforce misses a shot.

Edey’s size permits him to high-point the ball even when he doesn’t have inside place. You possibly can put a textbook field out on Edey and he can nonetheless get a putback.

Indiana middle Kel’el Ware goes to be draft forward of Edey in June. He’s exponentially higher as a run-and-jump athlete. Some shops have Ware with a 7’7 wingspan, which is very large if true. He nonetheless couldn’t preserve Edey off the offensive glass.

Hitting the offensive glass sometimes feels much more essential within the playoffs — simply take a look at what Mitchell Robinson did to the Cavs within the first spherical final 12 months. It’s an space of Edey’s recreation that ought to translate. He’s going to generate numerous further possessions for his workforce even towards NBA competitors.

Zach Edey is a free throw magnate

KenPom retains monitor of a stat known as “foul drawn per 40 minutes.” Edey was No. 1 within the nation this 12 months at 9.8 %. Just one different participant this season was even at eight %.

Edey averaged 11.2 free throw makes an attempt per recreation this 12 months — once more, No. 1 in America. He knocked down 71.4 % of 392 free throw makes an attempt. Final season, he made 73.4 % of 241 free throws. He’s not precisely cash from the road, however he’s not an enormous legal responsibility there both. The truth that he generates so many free throw makes an attempt remains to be a very good factor for an offense — particularly if he can preserve enhancing at foul pictures.

Zach Edey has superb contact along with his hook shot

Edey has superb contact on his hook pictures. He made 42 % on non-rim twos this season, per Bart Torvik. That quantity is down from his junior season, when he made 49.2 %.

Edey scored 1.044 factors per possession on post-ups this 12 months, per Synergy Sports activities. He’s most snug going proper. This bucket comes towards Arizona middle Motiejus Krivas, who’s listed at 7’2, 260 kilos. He couldn’t do something to trouble Edey’s shot.

Attacking from the left block, Edey shot 56 % from the ground, per Synergy. He’s cash when he can spin proper and shoot along with his proper hand over his left shoulder. He’s not practically as efficient going the opposite means, although he has made strides there this 12 months. He shot solely 40.3 % from the sphere attacking from the fitting block.

Edey’s greatest weaknesses is his foot velocity — and it looks like a deadly flaw for his NBA inventory

Let’s be trustworthy: there’s a purpose Edey has performed 4 years of school basketball. It’s as a result of the NBA has by no means actually needed him regardless of his offensive dominance.

Why? His lack of foot velocity is a large pink flag that opposing groups will attempt to exploit every time he’s on protection. There’s no 3-in-the-key rule in school, that means Edey can camp out all day within the paint. That’s not the case within the NBA, when defenders can solely keep within the paint for 3 seconds. When Edey has to defend in area towards NBA guards and wings, he’s going to be a significant legal responsibility.

Probably the most essential traits for an NBA huge is protection versatility. Edey doesn’t have any of it. He’s too sluggish to play on the degree of the display screen with any consistency, and he’s not going to modify. As an alternative, Edey goes to be in a deep drop more often than not. That may make him prone to floaters and pull-up jumpers from the guards who don’t wish to problem him going to the basket. These are robust, typically inefficient pictures even for NBA gamers, however the good ones will burn you as a rule. Edey can shut a few of that area along with his monumental wingspan, however the second he will get too jumpy, he’ll get burned to the basket.

Edey may also be a legal responsibility defending the pick-and-pop towards bigs who can shoot. With the ability to shut out rapidly and underneath management is significant for any NBA participant. Edey is simply too sluggish to do it. If he makes a real effort to dam a 3, an offensive participant can pump pretend and go proper round him. More often than not, he’s simply going to let the opposite huge shoot and hope he misses.

Much more athletic facilities within the “rim runner” archetype have bother staying on the ground in vital moments. Simply take a look at the Dallas Mavericks, who chosen Dereck Energetic II with a lottery decide, and traded a future first for Daniel Gafford on the deadline. Recently, Dallas has saved each of them on the bench to shut with Maxi Kleber on the 5, a 6’10, 240-pound participant who’s fast sufficient on protection to modify, and may shoot threes on offense.

Energetic and Gafford are considerably extra athletic than Edey, however they’re additionally each principally drop protection huge males. Drop is an efficient technique … to some extent. It’s vital for NBA bigs to have multiple instrument of their toolbox, and defensively Edey doesn’t.

Edey isn’t a robust passer, shooter, or handler on offense

NBA groups run their offense by the massive man an increasing number of in immediately’s recreation. Nobody does it higher than Nikola Jokic, a basketball genius who’s the finest participant on the planet and among the best passers at any place in league historical past. Domantas Sabonis, Bam Adebayo, and Nikola Vucevic are three extra bigs who can act as a hub of halfcourt offense with dribble-handoffs, quick roll passing, and the power to hit cutters.

That’s not Edey’s recreation. Whereas he’s grown some as a processor in his senior 12 months, he nonetheless struggles to rapidly map the ground and get the ball out of his fingers. Edey enters the Candy 16 with extra turnovers (77) than assists (73). He’s had extra turnovers than assists all 4 years of his profession.

Edey additionally doesn’t shoot from deep. He took his first three-point try ever this season, and is 1-for-2 on the 12 months. Even when he works on it, it’s exhausting to ever venture him as a flooring spacer within the NBA. That simply isn’t his recreation. He’s additionally not somebody who’s going to place the ball on the ground and assault off the dribble. Even a slow-footed huge man like Vucevic does this typically, nevertheless it’s outdoors the scope of Edey’s skills at 7’4.

The place ought to Zach Edey be taken in NBA Draft?

It looks like Edey is under-appreciated as a university basketball participant. He’s not “simply huge” — he’s tremendously expert, performs with a excessive motor, and has labored exhausting to get in higher form. Profitable back-to-back nationwide participant of the 12 months awards for the primary time since Ralph Samson is a severe accomplishment.

As an NBA prospect, Edey has a pathway to success in the fitting position, nevertheless it’s unlikely to return as a participant who can deal with heavy minutes. Even in his finest case outcomes, it’s exhausting to ascertain him as a participant averaging half-hour per evening and shutting essential video games. To me, Edey is ideally suited as a situational huge whether or not he’s beginning video games or coming off the bench. A task the place he’s taking part in about 20 minutes per recreation appears cheap as a higher-end end result.

Discovering the fitting match for Edey might be harder. He’ll have to go to a workforce with a number of robust point-of-attack defenders to make his drop protection viable. He’ll have to be surrounded by 4 different shooters on the ground always. He’ll have to play in lineups which have sufficient passing to persistently ship him the ball the place he likes to get it when he has a deep seal or a mismatch inside. He’ll want a workforce that doesn’t thoughts taking part in at a slower tempo.

ESPN has Edey projected at No. 14 total of their newest mock. That’s a bit of wealthy for my tastes, however not by an excessive amount of. Edey’s draft vary ought to begin within the 20s and go into early spherical two. I just like the match with Phoenix in our newest mock draft. The Suns have tons of shooters, they usually play sluggish. Phoenix’s lack of robust on-ball defenders could be problematic, although.

The Toronto Raptors might be one other good match for the Canadian huge man. The Raptors have some wonderful level of assault defenders and a lot size on the perimeter. In addition they have a scarcity of taking pictures which might make maximizing Edey’s offense harder. Toronto is slated to personal the primary decide within the second spherical presently, and that looks like a greater worth spot for Edey. The Pelicans — presently slated to choose No. 23 — may be an attention-grabbing match. New Orleans has a strong mixture of defensive size and taking pictures. Jonas Valanciunas is a free agent after the 12 months, and Edey might be an affordable alternative for a workforce that may additionally go small with Larry Nance within the center.

Function gamers hardly ever get the luxurious of discovering such an ideal match. The perfect of them are malleable to completely different lineup constructions, which is sort of a should given the fast turnover on NBA rosters from year-to-year. Edey is just not a well-rounded participant, slightly one with some elite strengths and deadly flaws. However whilst a four-year school participant, he’s nonetheless solely 21 years outdated till Could.

Edey is just not a completed product even after 4 years at Purdue. Keep in mind, he’s solely been taking part in basketball for about six years, and nonetheless has loads of room for enchancment. Whereas creating a three-point shot will most likely be seen as his greatest space of upside, I feel it’s extra important and extra lifelike for him to develop as a passer. Purdue coaches advised The Athletic Edey had by no means been coached on how you can move earlier than strolling onto campus. If he can grow to be a brief roll passer or somebody who can deal with a heavy weight loss program of dribble-handoffs, his offense turns into much more intriguing.

Nonetheless, Edey can have a strong NBA profession as play-finisher on rolls and from the dunker’s spot, and by attacking the offensive glass. We normally consider bench scorers as smaller guards like Lou Williams and Jason Terry. Edey could be a bench scorer as a supersized middle, slamming house publish feeds and putbacks in situational lineups.

Edey’s manufacturing has been so spectacular, so historic that it’s intellectually dishonest to say he’s “simply huge.” The truth that he’s getting into a 2024 draft class that feels just like the weakest of the final 10 years ought to solely assist his case. He can succeed within the NBA, it’s simply going to take a exact match.