New Delhi, India — Visiting Moscow in early July, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi described Russia as New Delhi’s “trusted ally” and “all-weather buddy”, referring to the decades-old strategic collaboration between the 2 nations.
But, lower than three months later, that relationship is being examined, particularly after stories that Kyiv has accessed Indian ammunition and is utilizing it within the Russia-Ukraine warfare. An investigation by the Reuters information company means that Indian shells, purchased by Italy and the Czech Republic, have been routed to Ukraine. The report follows a collection of battlefront photos which have emerged in latest months exhibiting Indian ammunition being utilized by Ukrainian forces to push again towards Russia.
In the meantime, Modi has held a string of conferences with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, starting in June in Tokyo, then in a first-ever go to by an Indian PM to Kyiv in August, and eventually, final week, in New York on the margins of the United Nations Common Meeting.
India’s Ministry of Exterior Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal described information stories of Ukraine utilizing Indian ammunition as “speculative and mischievous”. He denied that India had violated any guidelines however didn’t particularly deny the presence of Indian shells in Ukraine’s armoury.
However Russian officers are unconvinced by India’s response, and pose a central query: Has New Delhi pressured consumers of its shells to ensure it doesn’t attain the warfare in Ukraine?
“There’s ample proof of Indian artillery shells being utilized by Ukrainian forces. There are even pictures to counsel that,” a Russian official advised Al Jazeera, requesting anonymity. He pointed to the end-user agreements that accompany all army exports — for sellers to trace the ultimate customers of their bought armaments. “Present us the proof that India has adopted up with Italy or Czechia about how the shells have gone to Ukraine,” the official mentioned, utilizing one other identify for the Czech Republic.
If Indian ammunition is making its strategy to Ukraine, it might not be the one occasion of Indian weapons being utilized in present wars. In June, Al Jazeera revealed how rockets and explosives manufactured by Indian firms have been being shipped to Israel amid the devastating warfare on Gaza, through which greater than 41,000 individuals have been killed.
And if the shells are reaching Ukraine by means of third international locations — with out India essentially intending for that to occur — that too wouldn’t be unprecedented, mentioned Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu, professor on the Middle for World Affairs at New York College.
“In the course of the apartheid regime, retired British-made Centurion tanks belonging to India, which had been despatched for repairs and upgrades to a British firm, landed up in South Africa,” Sidhu advised Al Jazeera.
However there are additionally clear causes, say analysts, why India might need calculated that it may well handle the stress to its ties with Russia from Ukraine’s use of Indian shells.
‘Equal alternative provider’
Historically a number one arms importer, India exported $3bn value of weapons from 2018 to 2023 because it has tried to develop its homegrown defence manufacturing business below Modi.
The Ukraine warfare has offered the Indian defence business a significant enhance. Exports by simply three firms — Munitions India, Yantra and Kalyani Strategic Techniques — to Italy and the Czech Republic jumped from $2.8m to $135.24m between 2022 and 2024.
“As India begins exporting extra arms globally, it is going to take care of the disagreeable actuality that arms importers don’t all the time do what the exporter would really like with the arms and even often may do issues that seem to contravene restrictions the exporter had initially imposed,” mentioned Christopher Clary, assistant professor of political science on the College at Albany, State College of New York.
In the meantime, some stories counsel that Indian electronics exported to Russia are getting used for army purposes.
“If that’s certainly the case, then India is clearly being an equal alternative provider — and supplying either side: like Milo Minderbinder, the fictional character from Catch-22, who earnings by supplying either side of the battle,” Sidhu mentioned.
Impression on ties with Russia
Some consultants consider that Ukraine’s use of Indian ammunition won’t meaningfully complicate New Delhi’s lengthy and powerful relationship with Moscow, rooted of their shut cooperation in the course of the Chilly Warfare. Two-thirds of India’s weapons purchases previously twenty years have been from Russia – this at a time when New Delhi has tried to wean itself off its army dependence on Moscow.
Estimates counsel that Indian shells make up barely 1 p.c of Ukraine’s ammunition wants within the warfare towards Russia.
“Provided that the amount of ammunition apparently going to the Ukraine warfare is modest, I think about the turbulence this causes in India’s overseas relations may even be modest and manageable,” Clary advised Al Jazeera.
However the Russian official who spoke to Al Jazeera advised that Moscow is studying the tea leaves a little bit in a different way. The official identified that quickly after coming back from Kyiv in August, Modi referred to as United States President Joe Biden to replace him on his talks with Zelenskyy. However he made no such name to Putin, who as an alternative made the transfer to name Modi.
Modi then despatched India’s Nationwide Safety Adviser Ajit Doval to Moscow to temporary Putin concerning the Indian PM’s assembly with Zelenskyy. The Kremlin leaked footage of Doval attempting to influence a seemingly unconvinced Putin concerning the deserves of Modi’s go to to Kyiv, additional indicating the unease in ties between India and Russia.
In the meantime, again residence, leaders of the opposition Congress celebration are accusing Modi of sabotaging traditionally good relations with Moscow below US stress. “The Indian PM was compelled to journey by bulletproof practice to Kyiv below stress of US that desires New Delhi to interrupt its ties with its previous buddy Russia,” Congress chief Rashid Alvi advised Al Jazeera. “If the Indian arms are touchdown in Ukraine, then additionally it is resulting from machinations of the US.”
To Sidhu, the NYU professor, much more vital than the small quantity of Indian shells reportedly reaching Ukraine is the explanation why the Czech Republic and Italy is likely to be funnelling this ammunition to Zelenskyy’s forces within the first place.
“It exhibits that their manufacturing strains are stretched and they’re determined to produce Ukraine by any means doable,” he mentioned. “This can be a repeat of what occurred in 2011-12 when NATO ran out of bombs and weapons to make use of in Libya; clearly, the Ukraine warfare has stretched weapon provides amongst its Western allies.”
In February, the German newspaper Der Spiegel reported that Germany was in talks with India to purchase ammunition for Ukraine. The German Embassy in New Delhi refused to remark.
In the meantime, India has tried to border Modi’s serial conferences with Zelenskyy and Putin — he’ll go to Russia for a second time in three months in October for the BRICS summit — as a part of New Delhi’s efforts to dealer peace between Moscow and Kyiv.
Clary mentioned he doesn’t count on a small provide through third international locations of Indian shells to Ukraine to complicate these peace efforts. However he doesn’t see Modi succeeding in mediating peace both.
“The issue is each international locations assume they will obtain their warfare goals on the battlefield. I’m undecided Modi’s good workplaces can repair that drawback,” Clary mentioned.
Even with India’s latest overtures to Ukraine, Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, founder and president of the Goa-based assume tank, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Research, mentioned New Delhi’s historically heat ties with Moscow harm its credibility as a mediator. “India’s robust historic ties with Russia increase questions on India’s neutrality,” she advised Al Jazeera.
She additionally agreed that for all of Modi’s efforts, neither Russia nor Ukraine appeared focused on peace for now. “The warfare is presently at a posh stage, with either side decided to settle it by means of army means,” she mentioned. “In the intervening time, it appears unlikely that there’s any room for a peacemaker.”
What there’s room for are arms gross sales — together with ‘Made in India’ shells fired on the battlefront.
