After a lot media hypothesis, the Congress occasion has lastly introduced its candidates for the constituencies of Amethi and Raebareli on the final day of nomination. This brings a mixture of good and unhealthy information for the Congress cadre and supporters in Uttar Pradesh.
Rahul Gandhi has opted to contest from Raebareli, whereas Gandhi household buddy Kishori Lal Sharma will vie for the Amethi seat. Priyanka Gandhi has chosen to not contest and as a substitute give attention to campaigning nationwide.
There was appreciable stress from the native UP unit on the Gandhi siblings to contest from each constituencies. The worry was that not contesting from Amethi may give Smriti Irani a simple win for the seat.
A Disappointment For Congress Cadre
Amethi and Raebareli have been strongholds of the Congress and the Gandhi household. Not contesting it’s a tacit acknowledgement that Amethi has ceased to be a protected guess.
The native unit had hoped that each siblings contesting would increase the possibilities within the different 15 seats the place Congress is allied with the Samajwadi Social gathering (SP). Nevertheless, their determination has left some Congress employees disheartened.
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Credit score have to be given to Kishori Lal Sharma, a neighborhood candidate who’s well-acquainted with the constituency and enjoys recognition as a Brahmin, aligning with the occasion’s technique to regain conventional help from higher castes, tribals, Dalits, and Muslims.
Politically, this transfer has offered ammunition to the Bharatiya Janata Social gathering (BJP) to focus on the Gandhi household and the Congress. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already criticised this transfer by the Congress, utilizing it as fodder for assaults throughout election rallies. Union Residence Minister Amit Shah additionally questioned Rahul Gandhi’s quite a few launches, highlighting his shifts from Amethi to Wayanad, and now Raebareli.
What The Numbers Indicated
Rahul Gandhi has represented the Amethi seat since 2004, shedding it solely in 2019 to Smriti Irani. He at present represents Kerala’s Wayanad constituency.
In response to NDTV Information Centre, the Congress has received Amethi 15 out of 18 occasions and Raebareli 17 out of 20 occasions. The latter, historically held by Sonia Gandhi, is taken into account the pocket borough of the Gandhi-Nehru household.
The Congress Social gathering’s organisation in Raebareli is stronger in comparison with Amethi. The BJP’s Dinesh Pratap Singh isn’t seen as a serious contender in opposition to Rahul right here.
When it comes to electoral efficiency, Rahul Gandhi had a 46% vote share in Amethi in 2014, which dropped to 43% in 2019. In Raebareli, Sonia Gandhi persistently secured a 55-56% vote share in latest elections.
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Within the 2022 meeting elections, the SP and its allies received 4 out of 5 seats, whereas in Amethi, the BJP secured three and the SP two seats. Given the Congress’s alliance with the SP now, Raebareli seems to be a safer guess.
If Rahul had contested from Amethi and misplaced once more, it might have weakened his place inside the Congress Social gathering. That is doubtless why Rahul opted for a safer seat, making a sensible slightly than an emotional determination. Moreover, he has been out of contact with the constituency.
Nevertheless, Priyanka might have contested from Amethi to problem Smriti, which might have saved the occasion cadre motivated and despatched a powerful message throughout the state and the Hindi heartland.
A Transfer That Backfired?
Congress could also be hoping to convey a message that any occasion cadre or employee can safe a celebration ticket, aiming to deflect allegations of dynasty politics. Some information stories recommend that Rahul needs to retain the Wayanad seat because of the heat reception from voters and his profitable election there in 2019. If he had been to win, he might vacate the seat, resulting in a by-poll battle for Priyanka.
Nevertheless, the BJP has received SP stronghold seats like Rampur and Azamgarh in by-polls, a truth Congress wants to contemplate fastidiously. If Priyanka is finally pitched to signify the constituency, why not area her on this election itself as a substitute of ready for a by-poll? Had she been fielded from Raebareli, the BJP won’t have had the ammunition to assault Rahul with fees like “bhago mat” by Modi and “re-launch” by Shah.
Each strategic transfer has its execs and cons. Whether or not this determination seems to be a masterstroke or a misstep will solely be revealed after the ballot outcomes on June 4.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a company and funding banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the non-public opinions of the creator.
