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Saturday, September 21, 2024

UK Election Leads to Maps: How Labour’s Landslide Victory Occurred


The election has dramatically reshaped Britain’s electoral map, with practically half of seats in Parliament altering palms, delivering the Conservatives the worst defeat of their practically 200-year historical past.

Seats that flipped between 2019 and 2024

The Scottish Nationwide Get together misplaced greater than 30 seats to Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Labour regained historic strongholds in northern England it had misplaced after the Brexit vote.

Conservative seats on London’s outskirts flipped to different events.

The Liberal Democrats picked up a lot of southern England.

The Labour Get together gained seats throughout the nation. That was most obvious in postindustrial areas of the Midlands and North of England referred to as the “crimson wall,” the place many longtime Labour seats switched to the Conservatives within the earlier election in assist of their hard-line place on Brexit.

The Scottish Nationwide Get together, which has dominated Scottish politics for greater than a decade, misplaced greater than 30 seats. And the centrist Liberal Democrats gained dozens of seats, largely throughout southern England, on the expense of the Conservatives.

The Conservatives misplaced greater than half their seats

After 14 years in authorities, voters delivered a damning end result to the Conservatives, who misplaced practically two-thirds of their seats. Most went to the center-left Labour Get together, however 60 went to the centrist Liberal Democrats.

This shift might present the Labour authorities with the chance to steer the nation in a markedly completely different course.

The Conservatives gained the bottom vote share of their trendy historical past

Word: Parliament doesn’t sit for a hard and fast time period. Conservative vote share in 1931 and 1935 displays Nationwide Authorities candidates.

The Conservative Get together has by no means carried out as poorly in an election since the UK assumed its trendy type in 1922.

However the election was additionally historic in one other manner: The nation’s smaller events have additionally by no means carried out in addition to they did on Thursday. That continues a decades-long shift away from a two-party system, and implies that Labour’s place could also be extra fragile than it seems to be on the floor.

Help for the onerous proper surged

Labour picked up a number of the voters who abandoned the Conservatives, receiving about two proportion factors extra of the nationwide vote share than it did in 2019.

However Reform U.Ok., a hard-right, anti-immigrant social gathering led by Nigel Farage, a power behind Brexit, noticed the night time’s greatest bounce in vote share. His social gathering gained greater than 14 p.c of the nationwide vote, up 12 proportion factors from 2019, when its predecessor social gathering withdrew candidates in additional than 300 Conservative-held seats.

Labour gained a landslide with only a third of the vote

The Labour Get together gained one of many largest majorities of seats in Britain’s electoral historical past on the bottom share of votes of any election winner.

The vote confirmed widespread assist for smaller, ideological events throughout the nation that didn’t translate to vital seat positive factors.

On the fitting, Reform gained greater than 14 p.c of the vote, however gained simply 4 of the 650 seats in Britain’s Parliament. The Inexperienced Get together additionally gained 4 seats with round 7 p.c of the vote. And Labour misplaced 4 seats to pro-Palestinian unbiased candidates in seats with massive Muslim populations.

Conservatives had the largest drops in vote share the place Reform carried out one of the best

← Fewer Reform voters

|

Extra Reform voters →

Reform vote: 10% 20% 30% 40% Conservative vote shift 0 pts. -10 pts. -20 pts. -30 pts. -40 pts. -50 pts.

Word: Graphic doesn’t present constituencies the place there was no Reform candidate on the poll.

Through the marketing campaign, the Conservatives repeatedly warned their voters that abandoning the social gathering to vote for Reform would end in extra Labour victories. That turned out to be true.

The Conservatives misplaced essentially the most assist in seats the place Reform surged. In lots of seats the place Labour gained, Reform got here in second place, delivering on Mr. Farage’s pledge to place the social gathering effectively for the following common election, anticipated in 2029.

Conservative assist dropped throughout the board — and Labour fell again amongst younger folks

Youngest constituencies

Labour 51.1 44.1% 2019 2024 Con. 29.4 15.5% 2019 2024 Lib Dem 9.3 7.7% 2019 2024 Inexperienced 3.4 11.1% 2019 2024 Reform 2.8 11.3% 2019 2024

Subsequent youngest constituencies

33.9 38.1% 2019 2024 45.3 24.0% 2019 2024 10.9 10.9% 2019 2024 2.3 6.1% 2019 2024 3.2 17.2% 2019 2024

Older constituencies

25.6 32.4% 2019 2024 49.2 26.4% 2019 2024 12.5 13.7% 2019 2024 2.5 5.4% 2019 2024 2.0 16.4% 2019 2024

Oldest constituencies

20.6 25.9% 2019 2024 55.1 30.3% 2019 2024 13.5 15.9% 2019 2024 2.9 5.7% 2019 2024 0.6 16.3% 2019 2024

Supply: Age knowledge from the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics and Scotland Census

Word: Constituencies are bucketed by median age. Graphic reveals the imply vote share for every social gathering.

The Conservatives have overwhelmed Labour amongst older voters in each election since Labour’s landslide victory in 1997. Regardless of nonetheless performing greatest within the oldest areas of the nation on this election, the Conservatives’ assist dropped throughout the board.

However Labour’s efficiency within the youngest areas of the nation additionally reveals its weak point amongst its core voters.

Its vote share within the youngest seats — together with many educated city areas with massive pupil populations — dropped from 51 p.c on the earlier election to 44 p.c, as many citizens flocked to smaller events, the Inexperienced Get together on the left and Reform U.Ok. on the fitting, or to unbiased candidates.

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