UFC 307 Paths to Victory: How does Khalil Rountree Jr. pull off a large upset over Alex Pereira?

On Saturday evening on the Delta Heart in Salt Lake Metropolis, Utah, UFC 307 takes place with gentle heavyweight champion Alex Pereira placing his title on the road in opposition to fellow knockout artist Khalil Rountree Jr. in the principle occasion.

Pereira is likely one of the prime pound-for-pound fighters within the sport and has already jumped in on two earlier events this 12 months to assist the UFC at UFC 300 and at UFC 303 (the place he delivered spectacular knockouts). As such, Rountree is a major underdog to the champion. However that doesn’t imply “The Conflict Horse” can’t shock the world on Saturday so let’s check out how Rountree may writer the upset, and at how Pereira retains his belt.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

Paths to Victory for Alex Pereira at UFC 307

That is the third one of those I’ve written for Pereira this 12 months, and actually, it’s getting a bit tough to seek out new methods to say that “Poatan” is superior. The person is speed-running a Corridor of Fame profession and is already climbing the checklist of all-time fighters in only a few brief years within the sport. He within the midst of a very unprecedented profession and, no less than on paper, that ought to proceed on Saturday.

Maybe greater than another particular person in MMA at present, Pereira possesses a real nuclear choice. He’s very presumably the toughest pound-for-pound puncher within the sport and what’s actually unimaginable about it’s that he doesn’t even swing exhausting. He’s greatest recognized for his deadly left hook, however each shot Pereira throws thuds like a cinderblock and lacks the large wind-up you see from another heavy hitters. That is the engine that drives his total recreation. The specter of cataclysmic repercussions at a second’s discover forces each Pereira opponent to arrange accordingly and thus dictates a lot of how his fights play out.

Alongside these strains, whereas Pereira’s knockouts energy his recreation, it’s his low kicks that drive the automotive. Pereira is likely one of the absolute best calf-kickers in MMA as a result of he exhibits nearly no setup on them and so they nonetheless significantly impede his opponents. They’re the bedrock of his recreation, permitting him to attain seemingly innocuous blows, after which oops, immediately Pereira’s landed 15 in three minutes and now your leg doesn’t work anymore.

And for Pereira to defend his title on Saturday, these are the one actual instruments he wants. The construction of Pereira’s recreation is a Scylla and Charybdis setup, the place you may keep on the surface and get kicked to dying or you may wade into the hazard zone and face his nuclear energy. Both avenue leads to dying, and for Rountree, that is very true as he isn’t an adept defender of low kicks and he’s not going to immediately flip right into a D-1 wrestler. Additionally, he has a nasty behavior of dropping his proper hand when he throws his personal left.

For Pereira, the trail ahead is evident: be your self and restrict protracted engagements. Rountree just isn’t pretty much as good of a kickboxer, however he does have velocity and energy and throws together, which is a danger. Pereira ought to chop the leg from the surface and work pictures to the physique as properly, whereas he waits for Rountree to drop his guard, then increase goes the dynamite.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

Paths to Victory for Khalil Rountree Jr. at UFC 307

A UFC fighter since 2016 the place he entered the promotion off of The Final Fighter, Rountree has established himself as one in every of gentle heavyweight’s premier knockout artists throughout his eight-year tenure. However maybe extra spectacular than his knockouts is the truth that Rountree has confirmed notably succesful at dispatching former Glory Kickboxers, going 3-0 over them within the UFC. Now although “The Glory Killer” faces the Glory Kickboxing finish boss in former two-division champion Pereira.

Rountree’s success in opposition to former kickboxers comes down to at least one easy factor: he’s a strong striker in his personal proper and he possess the velocity and energy to catch folks off guard. Rountree is quick and highly effective and throws fight-ending pictures in speedy mixture, which together with his willingness to have interaction make him a risk throughout any alternate. That being stated, it additionally opens him as much as getting cracked by counters, which is dying in opposition to Pereira.

Rountree faces two main points on this matchup. The primary is navigating Pereira’s kicks. Rountree isn’t nice at checking low kicks and whereas one hopes he’s labored on that ability for this battle, a extra probably response is drilled counters, with Rountree’s left hand being keyed to set off a responding shot each time Pereira kicks him. If he can’t disincentivize calf kicks with checks, counters is the one different actual choice accessible to stopping Pereira from dictating the motion.

The second concern is producing his personal constant offense. We noticed in opposition to Dustin Jacoby that Rountree had a tough time managing the gap in opposition to a great striker with good footwork, and thus settled on lunging in recklessly at occasions. I can not stress sufficient how dangerous of an concept that’s in opposition to Pereira, who will instantly membership him for it.

As a substitute, Rountree ought to insist on successful the strain battle. Pereira can battle off his again foot however Rountree is in a lot better form if he’s at all times the one coming ahead. He additionally ought to feint quite a bit. Feints opened up plenty of alternatives for Israel Adesanya, and from Rountree they might be the distinction in touchdown a fight-ender or not. Most significantly although, Rountree wants to make use of these instruments to crowd Pereira and get inside, the place he can swing for the fences. May “Poatan” catch him if they begin buying and selling hooks in a telephone sales space? Sure. However that can also be by far the place that Rountree is almost definitely to land his personal fight-ender on Pereira.

Get inside and throw down, then see the place the chips fall.

One Large Query

Does the grueling schedule lastly meet up with Pereira?

Pereira is 37 years previous. That’s not precisely a spring hen, even up at gentle heavyweight. The person has been preventing professionally for 12 years and has over 50 skilled fights. That’s A LOT of mileage. On prime of that, Pereira has been absurdly energetic since becoming a member of the UFC. That is his tenth battle in three years. That’s a Donald Cerrone-level of exercise, which is nice for star-making however dangerous for remaining undefeated.

In nearly any sport, frequent competitors results in occasional defeat. You may’t at all times have your greatest day, particularly should you’re preventing each couple of months. And that will get exacerbated in fight sports activities as a result of the price of coaching and the accidents you accumulate there are so excessive. To date, Pereira has largely confirmed himself able to successful via any such hindrances, however should you roll the cube sufficient, finally they arrive up snake eyes.

Prediction

On the danger of sounding disrespectful to Rountree, this needs to be a showcase for Pereira. Rountree is a enjoyable fighter, however he’s like that quote from 300, “extra brawler than warrior, he makes an exquisite mess of issues.” If Rountree could make this extra of a brawl than a kickboxing battle, his possibilities to win go up, however even when he does, that’s nonetheless no assure. Pereira is just too savvy and packs an excessive amount of energy in his personal proper for Rountree 8 out of 10 occasions.

Alex Pereira knocks out Khalil Rountree Jr. at 1:03 of Spherical 2.