UFC 303 paths to victory: How can Jiri Prochazka get revenge on Alex Pereira?

Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka are set to run issues again.

This Saturday, Pereira and Prochazka rematch their UFC 295 gentle heavyweight title combat in the principle occasion of UFC 303. The primary time these two met, Pereira knocked Prochazka out within the second spherical to grow to be the UFC’s ninth two-division champion. This time, the 2 meet on short-notice as they step in to avoid wasting the day following Conor McGregor’s withdrawal from the occasion attributable to harm.

How will every man method this combat, and the way do they take dwelling the win? Let’s have a look.

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photos

Paths to Victory for Alex Pereira at UFC 303

When these two first fought, I picked Pereira to win with relative ease as a result of Prochazka’s offense, whereas potent, will not be backed up by elite protection, that means Pereira would have ample alternative to counter. That’s lower than preferrred for Prochakza provided that Pereira is likely one of the hardest punchers within the sport. And I used to be half proper. Sure, Prochakza did stroll headlong on to Pereira’s offense repeatedly, however what truly did him in was the low kicks.

Pereira is maybe the perfect calf-kicker in MMA. He’s so adept at kicking the legs with none setup, making it extraordinarily onerous to learn. And that’s particularly dangerous for Prochakza who operates from a protracted stance with a variety of weight on the entrance foot. Aleksandar Rakic chopped the lead leg out from Prochakza, and was dominating the combat, till Prochazka went wild man on him and easily overran him with offense. That’s a way more tough proposition towards somebody with the firepower and strategy of Pereira.

What this implies is that for Pereira, the trail ahead is easy: make this combat like the primary one. Chop the entrance leg, defend takedowns, and clip Prochazka when he begins to get wild. On prime of that, Pereira additionally ought to look to double jab, organising the straight proper hand. As a result of Prochakza fights together with his palms down, his first intuition on protection is to slide after which slide again. The double jab with a observe up places Prochakza within the robust spot of being on the finish of his protection when the facility shot is available in. Double jabs and calf kicks, that’s the secret on Saturday for Pereira.

Photograph by Carmen Mandato/Getty Photos

Paths to victory for Jiri Prochazka at UFC 303

Even supposing he received stopped within the first matchup, Prochakza enters Saturday saying he’s not going to alter the gameplan. That looks as if a foul thought. In any case, the definition of loopy is doing the identical factor and anticipating totally different outcomes.

Within the first combat, Prochakza approached it in the identical method he approaches most individuals, a bit little bit of all the things. He reveals Pereira a ton of various seems to be on the ft, scored one takedown, and even shocked Pereira within the second spherical with a barrage of lengthy punches that “Poatan” didn’t see coming. It’s a wise method to combat most individuals: however Pereira will not be most individuals.

Retaining opponents on their toes is normally a great technique. The extra they’ve to contemplate, the tougher issues get for them. Besides on this circumstance, when Prochakza spent the second spherical consenting to a putting battle with Pereira, that was simply taking part in to his opponent’s power. Certain, you can win that method. But it surely’s wiser to not.

The only method to beat Pereira is to take him down. That nearly totally negates his offense, that means Prochakza has the perfect probability to win the combat. And whereas Pereira is healthier than many imagine at wrestling and grappling, Prochakza proved he can do it. His first plan of assault ought to at all times be getting this to the ground and as soon as it’s there, it needs to be about management. Prochakza’s wild tendencies lengthen to the bottom as nicely and that’s how Pereira stood up within the first combat. The main target needs to be getting Pereira down after which conserving him there. Let offense come afterwards.

In fact that doesn’t imply be afraid of Pereira’s putting. No fighter can win a combat if they simply punt on one part of the sport totally. Prochakza had a great quantity of success on the ft utilizing a ton of feints to maintain Pereira off stability. Utilizing loads of that, plus extra physique work needs to be the main focus in putting. Prochakza has a sneaky entrance kick to the physique that may serve him nicely, and the physique work ought to open up different alternatives each up prime and into clinches, the place Prochakza than then look to take issues to the ground.

X-Components

In line with Prochakza, the largest x-factor is Pereira’s use of “non secular forces” to achieve an unsporting benefit within the combat. However any good samurai ought to be capable to negate the paranormal powers deployed towards him, so I’m calling {that a} wash. No, the x-factor on this combat is the short-notice.

Per most studies, Pereira was not initially eager on stepping in to avoid wasting this occasion on only a few weeks’ discover, and was in reality in Australia on the time. Add in that he’s recovering/nonetheless coping with some damaged toes (coincidentally the identical problem that led Conor McGregor to withdraw from the occasion) and it’s honest to marvel what model of Pereira will step into the cage on Saturday. No fighter competes at one hundred pc, however is Poatan even at 75? We’ll see.

On the opposite aspect of issues, Prochakza can also be stepping in on quick discover however rumor has it he was coaching like regular. If that’s the case, that’s undoubtedly a bonus heading into this combat.

Might all of this be nothing? In fact! It’s rumor, hypothesis, and conjecture. But when Pereira reveals up and might’t transfer as nicely or runs out of fuel within the later rounds, everybody will look again and assume we must always have seen this coming.

Prediction

Due to the quick discover, I do imagine this combat is nearer than final time, however I’ll guess the identical end result occurs. Prochakza has some instruments to make issues tough, however his insistence that he’s not altering the plan and his odd obsession with Pereira’s “non secular powers” makes me assume “BJP” didn’t study any actual classes from the primary encounter. In that case, Prochakza is principally hoping to high-roll a knockout blow towards Pereira, which may at all times occur, however the extra doubtless final result is one other combat the place Jiri runs headlong onto Pereira’s finest weapons.

Alex Pereira def. Jiri Prochazka through knockout (punches) — 4:34, Spherical 3.