With the calendar set to flip in a couple of days from June to July, that signifies that the looming specter of MLB’s commerce deadline is getting bigger and bigger on the horizon. With every passing day, we’re beginning to get a greater thought of who’s going to be utilizing the deadline to attempt to enhance their photographs at making a World Collection run and who’s going to be making an attempt to jumpstart a rebuild for the upcoming season and even longer.
One of many groups that’s presently wanting more likely to find yourself within the vendor’s group is the Toronto Blue Jays. That is truly a little bit of an upset (in additional methods than one) for the Blue Jays, who’ve made the Postseason in three of the previous 4 seasons however got here away with none wins in every of these appearances. Miserable current playoff historical past apart, the Blue Jays nonetheless figured to be proper within the thick of issues when it comes to the Postseason race. Positive, they most likely weren’t going to be competing for a divisional title (as evidenced by their 16 % odds in spring coaching of successful the AL East, based on FanGraphs) however this was no less than a workforce that might realistically harbor hopes of returning to October baseball once more as they have been sitting on a 49 % probability of creating the Postseason this yr based on FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds.
As of proper now, it’s a longshot for the workforce up North to get again into the event. Toronto is now 37-43, they’re lightyears behind within the division — 13.5 video games behind Baltimore for first place and given a 0.0 % probability of successful it. Their Wild Card hopes are getting slimmer with every day as nicely, as they’re presently 6.5 video games behind the Kansas Metropolis Royals for the third and closing Wild Card spot they usually’ve obtained three groups instantly in entrance of them vying for Kansas Metropolis’s spot. As such, FanGraphs is giving Toronto a 6 % shot at making the Postseason now. All you may say is that it’s higher than zero!
As you can most likely surmise by merely taking a look at their present lot in baseball life, the Blue Jays aren’t doing something notably nicely for the time being. Collectively, their pitching workers has an ERA- of 106 and a FIP- of 108 — each of these numbers being good for having their pitching workers rated within the backside 10 of baseball. Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt are giving it their finest within the rotation and you can say the identical for guys like Yimi García (earlier than his damage) and Trevor Richards within the bullpen as nicely. Nonetheless, it hasn’t been sufficient to propel the Blue Jays right into a successful place and it’s been a far cry from the nice work that this pitching workers did final season.
With that being stated, the pitching would merely be a thorn within the workforce’s aspect if Toronto was placing up numbers on the plate. Because it seems, they’ve additionally gotten worse as a collective on the plate right here in 2024 — heading into motion on Friday, the Blue Jays have been collectively hitting .234/.312/.372 with a .304 wOBA and a workforce wRC+ of 98. They’re hitting for much much less energy as nicely, as their Remoted Energy has gone down from .161 final season to simply .138 this season. That’s a bottom-five quantity in all of MLB and all the opposite numbers are mediocre at finest. So with the Blue Jays taking a drop in manufacturing all throughout the board on each the mound and on the plate, it’s all of a sudden very straightforward and comprehensible to see how they’ve performed themselves right into a critical pickle right here.
So it’s easy, proper? A workforce with slim-to-no probability of creating the Postseason ought to clearly be promoting, proper? GM Ross Atkins might as nicely simply go forward put up the ol’ “For Sale” signal and begin working the telephones with the complete intention of beginning a rebuild, right? Because it seems, it’s not that easy. As Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic talked about in her current article, the franchise is simply coming off of an costly renovation of the Rogers Centre and wouldn’t wish to put followers via a rebuild so quickly into their tenure on the newly renovated ballpark.
Between that and the massive amount of cash that’s already been invested into this workforce to start with, it’s secure to say that this isn’t merely a matter of flipping the change and saying “Okay, time to begin it another time.” Atkins advised McGrath as such in the aforementioned article:
“Each choice that you simply make, no matter a stadium renovation or the state of your group, you must be considering of the long run, as nicely,” Atkins stated. “However as you’ve seen during the last 4 years, we’ve poured quite a bit into the present workforce, from a monetary standpoint, from a commerce standpoint, from a useful resource standpoint and we’ll proceed to do this till it doesn’t make sense to take action anymore.”
With all of that in thoughts, if the Blue Jays are nonetheless in an identical place in each the division and Wild Card race by the point the commerce deadline begins to turn out to be imminent then I feel it will be secure to imagine that Toronto would begin promoting. If that occurs, then the query shifts in the direction of whether or not or not they’ll simply follow transferring their impending free brokers or in the event that they’ll transfer their stars as nicely. In the event that they follow merely getting what they’ll for guys like Yusei Kikuchi and Yimi García then it is clear that they are most likely going to attempt to run it again in 2025 with a retooled roster.
Nevertheless, there seems to be a risk that guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette could possibly be on the transfer. These rumors obtained a pleasant and wholesome dose of oxygen when Vladito did an interview with Virus Deportivo and made these feedback concerning probably being traded to a workforce just like the Yankees:
Here is a translation of these feedback from ESPN:
In 2022, Guerrero Jr. stated he’d “by no means signal with the Yankees — not even lifeless.” In 2023, he advised the New York Submit that it was “a private factor that goes again with my household. … I’d by no means change that.”
However by no means say by no means.
“Like I let you know, I’m a participant and if a workforce picks me or in the event that they do one thing, it’s as a result of they want it, clearly, and I’ll be glad to assist any workforce,” Guerrero advised Virus Deportivo on Monday. “However proper now, I’m simply targeted on serving to my workforce attempt to get out of this dangerous streak.”
If I used to be a Blue Jays fan, this could have me turning on the alarm bells. Whereas strolling again the feedback about his beef with the Yankees may simply be an indication of rising up and maturing, that is irrelevant. The primary level is that it is by no means actually an excellent signal for a workforce probably holding a participant round when stated participant is publicly speaking about being prepared to assist any workforce he is traded to — even the workforce that he had “a private factor” with. Once more, it isn’t that I’ve a difficulty with what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stated — that was about as professional-yet-honest of a solution as you can get to that query. It is the truth that it was even entertained that claims quite a bit about what is going on on with the Blue Jays for the time being.
With all of this being stated, there’s nonetheless no indicators {that a} Blue Jays/Yankees commerce is on the horizon. All of this commerce speak for the time being is smoke with actual tangible indicators of a fireplace close by. With that being stated, with every week that goes by with out the Blue Jays getting going, it looks like some arduous selections might need to be made North of the border. Whether or not it is through a retool or a whole rebuild, it is clear that the Blue Jays cannot maintain going like they’re and anticipate the World Collection trophy to return to Canada.
