Ronald Acuña’s season-ending harm means the trail to October simply bought extra difficult for the Braves

Let’s simply roll out of the gate right here with some fundamental numbers. In 2023, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley performed 159 video games for the Atlanta Braves. Ozzie Albies performed 148 video games. Sean Murphy performed 108 video games. Spencer Strider pitched probably the most innings of any Braves pitcher at 186.2 innings pitched. The Braves had been a juggernaut final season and so they had been a wholesome juggernaut, at that.

This season, occasions have modified and never in a great way for Atlanta in any respect. Sean Murphy opened up the season with an indirect harm that brought on him to overlook practically the complete first two months of the season. Ozzie Albies fractured his toe and was pressured to go on the IL in consequence. Spencer Strider pitched a grand whole of 9 innings over two begins earlier than he suffered a season-ending elbow harm and now Ronald Acuña Jr. is ready to overlook the remainder of this season after struggling a torn ACL in his left knee — simply three years after tearing the ACL in his proper knee.

For sure, the harm bug has lastly caught up with the Braves and is presently having fun with a gluttonous feast. The clear hope for Atlanta is that that is as dangerous because it’s going to get and that the worst just isn’t but to come back. If that is, in reality, the worst of it then the Braves nonetheless determine to be in good condition within the huge image. Heading into motion on Memorial Day, FanGraphs remains to be very bullish on the Braves — they’re presently being given a 97 p.c probability to make the Postseason not directly and so they nonetheless have the third-best odds (11.5 p.c, solely behind the Dodgers and Yankees) of finally being topped World Sequence champions in the long run.

With that being stated, the street to October has all of the sudden gotten a tiny bit extra difficult for the Braves. They’re most likely not going to cruise to 100 wins anymore and what’s much more essential is that they’re not the clear favorites to win the division. As I discussed on this house final week, the Phillies have gotten off to an unbelievable begin and FanGraphs has tabbed Philadelphia as the present favorites to win the division at a 60 p.c probability. The Braves are nonetheless being given a 40 p.c probability, which implies that it’s more likely to be a two-horse race, however that’s the operative phrase right here: It’s going to be a race and a severe one, at that.

That is nearly the one excellent news that there’s for the Braves in the mean time. Even with out Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr., that is nonetheless a really, superb baseball group and may nonetheless have their eyes on the Postseason and going far within the Postseason, at that. Regardless, it needs to be very irritating to lose arguably their finest pitcher and indisputably their finest participant for the remainder of the season. They nonetheless have a robust pitching workers, as evidenced by the truth that the workers presently has the fifth-best ERA- in baseball (83) and the fifth-best FIP- (93) as effectively. Whereas the lineup has been in a little bit of a boom-or-bust mode just lately, it is nonetheless been sufficient for them to be comfortably within the prime 10 of baseball in terms of group wRC+ (109).

Photograph by Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Photographs

It additionally helps that issues ought to get simpler for the Braves in terms of the schedule. There’s been loads of discuss how Philadelphia’s schedule has been very amenable for the primary couple of months of the season. Whereas the Braves have not been coping with a nightmarish schedule by any means, in addition they have their justifiable share of relative cupcakes left on the schedule. Heading into Memorial Day, the Braves have the eleventh-easiest schedule left and that features 20 video games towards the likes of the White Sox, Marlins, Angels and A’s. That additionally contains 10 extra video games towards the Phillies, as the 2 presumptive favorites within the NL East have not seen one another because the Braves took two out of three in Philadelphia to kick off the season.

These 30 video games would possibly find yourself being essential in the direction of deciding who wins the division and who would not and to this point, the Phillies have a leg up in terms of beating up on the dangerous groups in baseball. The Braves will both must be simply nearly as good because the Phillies have been towards dangerous groups or they should proceed to being a serious thorn in Philadelphia’s aspect in terms of head-to-head matchups this season. Each determine to be powerful duties for Atlanta — Philadelphia has been completely deadly towards the weaker groups on their schedule and the Braves should face Philadelphia with out having Strider or Acuña as energetic gamers going ahead this yr. It is fairly simple to see why the Phillies are actually the favorites because the Braves now have a really giant activity on their arms to make it seven-straight divisional titles.

With that in thoughts, if any group in baseball appears to relish a problem within the common season, it is the Braves. They famously gained the World Sequence as an 88-win group in 2021 and did so after Ronald Acuña Jr. tore his ACL in his proper knee in the midst of July. Their subsequent act in 2022 was to beat a ten.5 sport deficit to the New York Mets with the intention to win the final nice divisional pennant chase of the earlier Postseason format’s period and so they gained 104 video games in 2023 whereas principally solely having three dependable beginning pitchers for almost all of the season. Whereas it is actually honest to query the Braves in terms of the Postseason after the inglorious exits that they suffered by the hands of the Phillies for the previous two seasons, it is a group that is proven a masterful grasp of the best way to win within the common season — it doesn’t matter what comes their manner.

The harm problems with 2024 determine to be the following main problem for the Braves. They undoubtedly have the expertise to beat these woes and they need to nonetheless be an element within the Postseason as soon as October rolls round. Whether or not they’ll be NL East champions as soon as once more or a Wild Card group for the primary time in an extended whereas is actually up for debate at this level. Both manner, it is not all going to go Atlanta’s manner this season and most significantly, this is hoping that Ronald Acuña Jr. could make one other profitable restoration from knee surgical procedure. He is carried out it earlier than and it is time for each the Braves and the game of baseball to hope that one of many greatest stars within the sport can return to type sooner or later as soon as once more.