Olympics’ 8 males’s basketball groups nonetheless standing, ranked by gold medal probabilities

The boys’s basketball match on the 2024 Paris Olympics is on its method to crowning a champion. A 12-team discipline has been trimmed to only eight groups after the group stage, and now it’s time for a single-elimination knockout match till one crew stands on prime of the rostrum with the gold medal.

The US is the plain favourite getting into the knockout rounds. The Individuals have received seven of the final eight Olympics gold medals in males’s basketball, and blasted their means by way of the group stage with the match’s finest point-differential. Their two largest challengers for gold are Germany and Canada, however the U.S. received’t play both till the potential championship sport.

This match has been filled with star-power and thrilling video games thus far. It’s solely going to get higher within the knockout rounds, as a result of something can occur in a single-elimination, 40-minute FIBA sport. Discover the schedule and bracket for the knockout rounds within the males’s basketball match on the 2024 Paris Olympics right here. Right here’s how we’d rank the eight groups nonetheless standing within the discipline by their gold medal probabilities.

8. Brazil

Brazil can thank former Raptors first spherical choose Bruno Caboclo (of “two years away from being two years away” fame) for pushing them into the knockout rounds. Caboclo popped off for 33 factors (on 13-of-19 capturing from the sector) and 17 rebounds in a win over Japan that pushed Brazil into the knockout rounds. Solely Greece scored fewer whole factors within the group stage, however veterans like Vitor Benite, Leo Meindl, and Raul Neto have supplied a aggressive basis for this crew. It could take a miracle to beat Group USA within the quarterfinals, however Brazil can nonetheless say it had a profitable match.

Photograph by SAMEER AL-DOUMY/AFP through Getty Photographs

7. Greece

Giannis Antetokounmpo is placing Greece on his again within the Olympics. Giannis is main the match in scoring at 27 factors per sport whereas additionally serving to make Greece the second stingiest protection within the discipline by factors allowed. The issue is that Antetokounmpo doesn’t have a lot assist round him offensively. Solely one in every of his teammates is averaging double-figures in scoring (Vasilis Toliopoulos at 12 factors per sport), and nobody else on the crew is capturing above 43 % from the sector. Greece’s 233 factors are the fewest of any crew to succeed in the knockout stage. The offense may be a whole slog proper now, however Giannis’ super-human two-way capability has pushed them to the knockout rounds, and that’s one thing to be happy with.

Photograph by Gregory Shamus/Getty Photographs

6. France

France is going through a ton of strain for a deep run because the host nation, however proper now this roster appears to be like too flawed for that. Whereas Victor Wembanyama has been incredible in his Olympics debut on each ends of the ground, his teammates have struggled to get him the ball in advantageous conditions. The downfall for France thus far has been its guard play. Frank Ntilikina and Matthew Strazel can’t get to the rim for straightforward buckets like most backcourts on this match, and Evan Fournier’s capturing has fallen off since a sizzling run on the final Tokyo Olympics. Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert has so nice defensively that France has an opportunity in any matchup, however it’s laborious to win with out good guard play.

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5. Australia

The Aussies took second within the ‘group of loss of life’ regardless of going 1-2. Australia is studying it may possibly’t rely so closely on soon-to-be 36-year-old Patty Mills in these Video games. After carrying Australia to bronze on the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, Mills has struggled to get going offensive thus far, capturing solely 30 % on two-point discipline targets. His youthful teammates have picked up the slack. Josh Giddey has stepped up as the brand new chief of the Boomers, giving this crew a stable mixture of scoring (15 factors) and playmaking (6.7 assists) to start out the match. Huge man Jock Landale has been glorious inside, with hyper-efficient scoring (17.7 factors per sport on 68.8 % capturing on two-pointers) and rebounding. One space of focus for Australia because it strikes onto the knockout rounds to face Serbia: it has to shoot free throws higher. Its 63.5 % mark from the road is the worst of any crew to advance previous the group phases.

Photograph by Gregory Shamus/Getty Photographs

4. Serbia

Serbia by no means actually felt prefer it performed its finest basketball in group play, however it nonetheless simply superior with the fourth largest point-differential at +26. The large concern for Serbia proper now’s a protection that allowed 87 factors per sport in three contests — the worst mark of any crew to succeed in the knockout rounds. Serbia must relay closely on its offense, however that’s simply high quality with the perfect participant on the planet, Nikola Jokic, because the hub of its assault. Jokic averaged 18.7 factors, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists per sport in group play, which ranked within the top-10 of every class. Serbia’s shooters haven’t gotten sizzling but, and this was nonetheless the second-best offense in group play. If Bogdan Bogdanovic and firm warmth up from deep, Serbia harmful in a 40-minute FIBA sport with Jokic as their chief. Australia is a tricky matchup within the quarterfinals and the U.S. is an unattainable one within the semis, however Serbia nonetheless has the products to have an actual likelihood to do one thing particular.

Photograph by Gregory Shamus/Getty Photographs

3. Germany

It shouldn’t be a shock that the Germans have been so spectacular within the Olympics thus far — they’re the defending FIBA World Cup champions, and proceed to appear like probably the most cohesive crew within the discipline. Germany’s protection has been the most important revelation of the match thus far: each different crew allowed a median of a minimum of 80 factors per sport in group play, however Germany held the opposition to solely 73.7 factors throughout their 3-0 begin. Germany’s offense appeared super because the third highest-scoring crew in group play. Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner are professional FIBA stars on the perimeter, and Mo Wagner and Daniel Theis have been glorious offering toughness inside. Low cost Germany on this match at your personal peril. This crew is actually good.

Photograph by SAMEER AL-DOUMY/AFP through Getty Photographs

2. Canada

Canada superior out of the so-called Group of Demise unblemished with wins over Australia, Greece, and Spain — even when it wasn’t at all times fairly. The Canadians have struggled to shoot the ball from three (33.8 % from deep by way of three video games) and have one of many weaker entrance courts remaining within the match, however there’s nonetheless a lot to love about this crew. R.J. Barrett is enjoying a number of the finest ball of his profession proper now as Canada’s main scorer, exhibiting the downhill scoring capability that after made him a prime NBA prospect. Dillon Brooks can also be enjoying impressed ball, at instances feeling like this group’s emotional chief along with his defensive depth and knack for hitting massive pictures. All the things nonetheless revolves round Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the 26-year-old MVP candidate who will be the perfect participant on the ground whatever the opponent. Canada has a hellacious path to the gold medal sport with France within the quarterfinals and doubtlessly Germany within the semis, however this crew has the second highest ceiling within the discipline in the event that they play their finest sport.

Photograph by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE through Getty Photographs

1. United States

If there have been issues about Group USA coming off a number of shut video games within the exhibition slate, a dominant run in Group C ought to have bolstered that that is by far the perfect crew within the discipline. The Individuals routed a medal contender in Serbia of their opening sport, after which coasted to simple wins over South Sudan and Puerto Rico. Hardest checks are coming for the U.S., however this crew seems to have a solution for each query that might probably be posed to them. LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant is an incredible basis for this crew — not simply because it’s three top-20 gamers of all-time, but in addition as a result of their video games match collectively so seamlessly. Whereas Joel Embiid has struggled to adapt at instances, the entrance courtroom nonetheless appears to be like excellent with Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo each enjoying nice ball. Jrue Vacation and Derrick White have transitioned completely from the Celtics to the nationwide crew, offering their signature model of defensive versatility and connective offensive ability units. Something can occur in a single-elimination match, however Group USA deserves to be a heavy favourite.