Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Nationwide Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised to start its third time period in workplace, with the BJP rising as the only largest social gathering, securing 240 seats. This marks the primary time in 35 years {that a} social gathering has received greater than 235 seats in three consecutive elections. PM Modi has now change into the longest-serving Prime Minister of India up to now 40 years. Though there was widespread expectation that the BJP would rating 300-plus, the NDA stays the strongest coalition authorities for the reason that Nineteen Nineties. But, the opposition is celebrating its elevated seat depend as if it had been a victory for the I.N.D.I.A bloc.
Given the expectations, Verdict 2024 is a “shock” to many. This “shock” emerged principally from the swing states of Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bengal, Haryana and Rajasthan, the place the Lok Sabha election turned “native” as an alternative of nationwide, impacting the BJP in some 70 seats.
Uttar Pradesh
The BJP secured a vote share of 49.5% within the nation’s most politically necessary state in 2019 and 42% in 2014. In 2024, the BJP achieved a vote share of 41.37%, nearer to its 2014 determine.
The Samajwadi Social gathering received a 17.96% vote share in 2019, which has climbed to 34% in 2024. The rise of Akhilesh Yadav’s social gathering is instantly proportional to the drop within the vote share of Mayawati’s BSP, from 19% in 2019 to 9% this time.
A majority of the Scheduled Caste votes have shifted from the BSP to the Samajwadi Social gathering. In Purvanchal, or jap Uttar Pradesh, the BJP and its allies had received 20 of 27 seats within the final election. This election noticed a dip of 10 seats on this area. The shift of Scheduled Caste votes in Ambedkar Nagar, Sant Kabir Nagar, Jaunpur, Lalganj, Baliya, and Chandauli helped the Samajwadi convert these seats into wins.
The non-Yadav OBC votes noticed a break up, with the Kurmi, Kushwaha, Nishad, and Rajbhar castes probably shifting 60%, 62%, 65% and 70% of votes to the native Samajwadi Social gathering candidates in lots of seats of Uttar Pradesh. The BJP’s alliance with Sanjay Nishad and OP Rajbhar was not sufficient to carry the Rajbhar votes; they most well-liked to vote for native candidates of the identical caste. For the primary time since 2014, the non-Yadav OBC votes went away from the BJP due to higher social engineering by the Samajwadi Social gathering.
Together with the non-Yadav OBC break up, one other issue was the dearth of unity within the Higher Castes in comparison with 2019. Fewer Brahmins voted for the BJP in seats like Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, and Baliya (close to Varanasi) in comparison with 2019; even at a seat like Domariyaganj, received by the BJP, 80 per cent of Brahmins voted for the Samajwadi Social gathering.
In western UP, the BJP suffered losses in seats comparable to Muzaffarnagar and Kairana – not due to cross-voting by Thakur voters, however reasonably as a result of they did not end up on the polling sales space in the identical numbers as they did in 2019.
Sitting MPs dealing with anti-incumbency additional catalysed the caste and native narrative throughout Uttar Pradesh. In Ayodhya, the non-availability of the native MP was a big motive for the shift in Scheduled Caste votes to the Samajwadi Social gathering.
Resentment over the Agniveer scheme additionally prevented the consolidation of the youth votes in direction of the BJP.
The BJP had hoped that its welfare schemes and the Nation First narrative would overcome this silent anti-incumbency. Nonetheless, the rise within the proportion of native components dominating and deciding the voting final result in Uttar Pradesh was the primary standalone shift seen within the final 10 years.
The Scheduled Caste vote shift from the BJP to Samajwadi Social gathering was not because of the opposition’s “Samvidhan Khatre Most important Hai (Structure is at risk)” marketing campaign. Relatively, it was a mixture of things like anti-incumbency towards sitting MPs, and the heavy domination of Scheduled Caste and non-Yadav OBC candidates picked by the Samajwadi Social gathering (27 OBC, 15 SC, 11 Higher Caste).
West Bengal
The 2019 Lok Sabha outcomes, by which the BJP obtained a vote share of 40 per cent, mirrored an “anti-Mamata Banerjee vote” within the backdrop of Panchayat ballot violence in 2018. The 2021 Bengal meeting was an inflexion level, with the BJP failing so as to add to that vote share. As an alternative, it dropped to 38%, a 2% dip from the 2019 nationwide election end result. Mamata Banerjee, nevertheless, maintained a forty five per cent vote share, much like the 2021 meeting elections, within the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Regardless of the Sandeshkhali case, Mamata Banerjee polled 58% of girls’s votes. The ‘Lokkhi Bhandar’ scheme labored on the bottom to mobilise extra ladies voters in direction of Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress.
Of the 12 seats received by the BJP in Bengal, 10 seats confirmed a margin of lower than one lakh votes. The CPM additionally garnered roughly 1 to 2 lakh votes in 10 seats. These had been voters who didn’t need to vote TMC, and had been sad with the number of BJP candidates. Regardless of the notion of a corrupt state authorities resonating on the bottom, the selection of candidates by the Trinamool’s rivals left voters adrift, and lots of within the BJP organisation watched passively. In seats like Hooghly, which suffered heavy anti-incumbency, the candidate was repeated regardless of voter resentment, just because none different was out there. In locations like Barrackpore, the candidate denied a ticket by the Trinamool was instantly given a BJP ticket. The swapping of candidates between Asansol, Durgapur, Medinipur additional bred resentment. It was felt that there was restricted course correction by the BJP after its 2021 meeting election defeat.
Voters couldn’t really feel assured about any of the candidates, they usually remained silent. Some candidates, who misplaced the meeting elections in 2021, had been nominated for the 2024 Lok Sabha contest. The BJP in Bengal couldn’t convert the anti-incumbency and pro-Narendra Modi sentiment into votes. Mamata Banerjee’s 360-degree strategy to successfully manoeuvre equipment, administration, and media proved to be efficient and helped her offset the influence of anti-incumbency. It’s stated in Bengal that an election must be fought, and public notion is simply one of many many components that determine the ultimate final result within the polling sales space.
Haryana and Rajasthan
A robust consolidation of Jat voters, and weakened counter-caste consolidation was a typical issue that price the BJP in these two states.
In Rajasthan, Nagor, Sikar, Jhunjunu, Churu and Barmer witnessed a robust Jat consolidation away from the BJP. The Rajput anger after Purshottam Rupala’s assertion additionally pushed this group away from the BJP. Within the seats of Tonk-Sawai Madhopur and Dausa, the ‘Meena’ group tilted in direction of the Congress to help native Meena leaders. This shift was on the again of unfulfilled guarantees by the BJP to care for their aspirations after forming authorities in Rajasthan after profitable the 2023 state polls. Within the Bharatpur and Karauli-Dholpur constituencies, loyal voters of the BJP drifted in direction of the Congress. The BJP misplaced in these 9 seats as caste concerns overrode the “Modi issue”.
In Haryana, the Sonipat and Rohtak constituencies witnessed extra Jat and rural votes in favour of the Congress than in 2019. In Sirsa, the selection of candidate led to a consolidation of Scheduled Caste votes in favour of the Congress. Anti-incumbency in Haryana was seen, and the “Modi issue” may solely forestall extra seats shifting from the BJP to Congress. The voters apparently felt the BJP equipment was taking their voice with no consideration, and regardless that they wished PM Modi to proceed, they might not resist punishing these they felt had uncared for them.
These floor realities and anti-incumbency dragged down the BJP’s vote share from 58.02 per cent to 46.11 per cent in Rajasthan, and from 58% to 46.11% in Haryana.
Maharashtra
The BJP in Maharashtra has kind of its vote share at related ranges – 27.32% in 2014, 27.59% in 2019, and 26.18% in 2024. The Congress drew the same vote share because it did in 2019, however the social gathering’s winnings elevated from one to 13 Lok Sabha seats in 2024. The losses in Maharashtra had been, once more, extra resulting from “inside” components of the BJP than exterior. An entire vote switch between Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Congress was anticipated, nevertheless the BJP’s vote in Mumbai and Vidarbha couldn’t crystallise because it did in 2019.
The election in Maharashtra turned native with the BJP’s voters exhibiting passive involvement at finest, significantly after the alliance with NCP (Ajit Pawar), and Shinde Sena. Right here too, the seat-wise evaluation boils all the way down to the localisation of the polls. Candidate choice, significantly from rival events, turned the dominant silent issue within the thoughts of the voter over nationwide points.
Throughout the nation, the BJP has held a gradual vote share, much like 2019, racking up extra votes than the Congress in southern India, and sustaining a strike fee of 55% in direct contests with the Congress. Nonetheless, within the number of candidates, the BJP was outsmarted by the opposition in states like Uttar Pradesh, which contributed considerably to the ruling social gathering’s droop to 240 seats in 2024, from 303 seats in 2019 and 272 seats in 2014.
It will likely be unsuitable to label this as an anti-incumbency vote. No different social gathering or coalition has been re-elected for a 3rd consecutive time period with as many seats because the Modi-led NDA. The truth is that voters who supported PM Modi in these key states had no various however to precise their silent dissent towards the native candidates.
Exit Polls scientifically map sentiment and components and assign proportionate weight to foretell a possible final result. Globally, exit Polls go proper and at instances miss the mark. All exit polls after these elections mapped two fashionable narratives –
- PM Modi is fashionable on the bottom and his schemes are appreciated by the folks, significantly the ladies
- Clear and current anti-incumbency towards native candidates
Exit polls underestimated the silent localised anti-incumbency within the thoughts of the ‘Parivarik‘ voter. “Mehengai and berozgari (inflation and unemployment)” had been points mirrored within the exit polls too. Nonetheless, the interpretation of those points into “silent dissent” was catalysed by components that had been extra inside to the BJP.
If this had been an anti-incumbency verdict towards the central authorities, the BJP’s vote share wouldn’t have remained regular. In 2019, with the same vote share, the BJP secured 303 seats. Its 2024 vote share is 5.5% larger than the vote share that received it 272 seats in 2014. In the meantime, the Congress vote share has persistently ranged between 19-21% since 2014 and stays inside that vary.
(The writer is Founder, Jan Ki Baat, and a psephologist and journalist)
Disclaimer: These are the non-public opinions of the writer
