Lower than every week in the past, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia claimed a fifth time period together with his highest-ever share of the vote, utilizing a stage-managed election to point out the nation and the world that he was firmly in management.
Simply days later got here a searing counterpoint: His vaunted safety equipment failed to forestall Russia’s deadliest terrorist assault in 20 years.
The assault on Friday, which killed at the least 133 folks at a live performance corridor in suburban Moscow, was a blow to Mr. Putin’s aura as a frontrunner for whom nationwide safety is paramount. That’s very true after two years of a warfare in Ukraine that he describes as key to Russia’s survival — and which he solid as his prime precedence after the election final Sunday.
“The election demonstrated a seemingly assured victory,” Aleksandr Kynev, a Russian political scientist, stated in a telephone interview from Moscow. “And instantly, in opposition to the backdrop of a assured victory, there’s this demonstrative humiliation.”
Mr. Putin appeared blindsided by the assault. It took him greater than 19 hours to deal with the nation in regards to the assault, the deadliest in Russia for the reason that 2004 faculty siege in Beslan, within the nation’s south, which claimed 334 lives. When he did, the Russian chief stated nothing in regards to the mounting proof {that a} department of the Islamic State dedicated the assault.
As an alternative, Mr. Putin hinted that Ukraine was behind the tragedy and stated the assailants had acted “similar to the Nazis,” who “as soon as carried out massacres within the occupied territories” — evoking his frequent, false description of present-day Ukraine as being run by neo-Nazis.
“Our frequent responsibility now — our comrades on the entrance, all residents of the nation — is to be collectively in a single formation,” Mr. Putin stated on the finish of a five-minute speech, attempting to conflate the combat in opposition to terrorism together with his invasion of Ukraine.
The query is how a lot of the Russian public will purchase into his argument. They may ask whether or not Mr. Putin, with the invasion and his battle with the West, actually has the nation’s safety pursuits at coronary heart — or whether or not he’s woefully forsaking them, as a lot of his opponents say he’s.
The truth that Mr. Putin apparently ignored a warning from america a few potential terrorist assault is more likely to deepen the skepticism. As an alternative of appearing on the warnings and tightening safety, he dismissed them as “provocative statements.”
“All this resembles outright blackmail and an intention to intimidate and destabilize our society,” Mr. Putin stated on Tuesday in a speech to the F.S.B., Russia’s home intelligence company, referring to the Western warnings. After the assault on Friday, a few of his exiled critics have cited his response as proof of the president’s detachment from Russia’s true safety considerations.
Moderately than retaining society protected from precise, violent terrorists, these critics say, Mr. Putin has directed his sprawling safety companies to pursue dissidents, journalists and anybody deemed a risk to the Kremlin’s definition of “conventional values.”
A living proof: Simply hours earlier than the assault, state media reported that the Russian authorities had added “the L.G.B.T. motion” to an official record of “terrorists and extremists”; Russia had already outlawed the homosexual rights motion final 12 months. Terrorism was additionally among the many many fees prosecutors leveled in opposition to Aleksei A. Navalny, the imprisoned opposition chief who died final month.
“In a rustic during which counterterrorism particular forces chase after on-line commenters,” Ruslan Leviev, an exiled Russian army analyst, wrote in a social media publish on Saturday, “terrorists will all the time be happy.”
Even because the Islamic State repeatedly claimed duty for the assault and Ukraine denied any involvement, the Kremlin’s messengers pushed into overdrive to attempt to persuade the Russian public that this was merely a ruse.
Olga Skabeyeva, a state tv host, wrote on Telegram that Ukrainian army intelligence had discovered assailants “who would appear like ISIS. However that is no ISIS.” Margarita Simonyan, the editor of the state-run RT tv community, wrote that reviews of Islamic State duty amounted to a “fundamental sleight of hand” by the American information media.
On a prime-time tv discuss present on the state-run Channel 1, Russia’s best-known ultraconservative ideologue, Aleksandr Dugin, declared that Ukraine’s management and “their puppet masters within the Western intelligence companies” had absolutely organized the assault.
It was an effort to “undermine belief within the president,” Mr. Dugin stated, and it confirmed common Russians that they’d no alternative however to unite behind Mr. Putin’s warfare in opposition to Ukraine.
Mr. Dugin’s daughter was killed in a automobile bombing close to Moscow in 2022 that U.S. officers stated was certainly approved by elements of the Ukrainian authorities, however with out American involvement.
U.S. officers have stated there isn’t a proof of Ukrainian involvement within the live performance corridor assault, and Ukrainian officers ridiculed the Russian accusations. Andriy Yusov, a consultant of Ukraine’s army intelligence company, stated Mr. Putin’s declare that the attackers had fled towards Ukraine and meant to cross into it, with the assistance of the Ukrainian authorities, made no sense.
In latest months, Mr. Putin has appeared extra assured than at another level since he launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russian forces have retaken the initiative on the entrance line, whereas Ukraine is struggling amid flagging Western help and a scarcity of troops.
Inside Russia, the election — and its predetermined end result — underscored Mr. Putin’s dominance over the nation’s politics.
Mr. Kynev, the political scientist, stated he believed many Russians have been now in “shock,” as a result of “restoring order has all the time been Vladimir Putin’s calling card.”
Mr. Putin’s early years in energy have been marked by terrorist assaults, culminating within the Beslan faculty siege in 2004; he used these violent episodes to justify his rollback of political freedoms. Earlier than Friday, the newest mass-casualty terrorist assault within the capital area was a suicide bombing at an airport in Moscow in 2011 that killed 37 folks.
Nonetheless, given the Kremlin’s efficacy in cracking down on dissent and the information media, Mr. Kynev predicted that the political penalties of the live performance corridor assault can be restricted, so long as the violence was not repeated.
“To be sincere,” he stated, “our society has gotten used to retaining quiet about inconvenient subjects.”
Fixed Méheut contributed reporting.
