Collaborations with worldwide companies and investments
in abroad markets have helped Chinese language industrial automobile
firms increase their attain.
Mainland China is the world's largest producer and exporter of
medium and heavy industrial automobiles (MHCV) weighing greater than six
metric tons. Mainland China's strong manufacturing capabilities,
aggressive pricing and skill to fulfill the wants of various
international locations drive this success.
Surge in Exports Pushed by Aggressive
Benefits
Due to these strengths, Chinese language producers have
considerably elevated their share of worldwide markets during the last
4 years.
In 2022, exports of heavy tractor-trucks led this progress, extra
than doubling from the yr earlier than. China's Belt and Street
initiatives have additional boosted exports, with core export
locations in Southeast Asia, the Center East, Africa and South
America. We define this progress in our
MHCV export module, which covers 75 international locations.
The Publish-Pandemic Export Increase: A Fast Development
Part
Since 2021, Mainland China's exports of MHCVs have surged,
coming into a speedy progress part following pandemic-related provide
chain disruptions that affected abroad manufacturing. Whereas
Western OEMs confronted a scarcity of chips and different core parts,
many Chinese language automakers had home entry to an entire
industrial chain, which helped quickly improve capability whereas
Western automakers needed to minimize manufacturing.
From 2021 to 2023, industrial truck exports from Mainland China
skilled a outstanding compounded annual progress fee (CAGR) of
33.5%, reaching an all-time excessive in 2023. Heavy-duty vans (over
15 tons) — which noticed a CAGR of 43.6% and accounted for 77.6% of
the entire export quantity in 2023 — primarily drove this
progress.
Japanese Europe: A Key Marketplace for Chinese language Heavy
Vans
In 2021, demand for Chinese language heavy vans surged by 112% within the
Japanese European market, largely as a result of elevated demand from
Russia. Because the battle between Russia and Ukraine unfolded, all
Western auto producers exited the Russian market, which allowed
Chinese language truck manufacturers to seize a bigger share.
Attributable to modifications in Russian tax guidelines, Russia turned the highest
vacation spot of Chinese language MHCV exports from 2021 to 2023. As Russia
appears to be like to bolster its economic system and infrastructure, demand for Chinese language
items — starting from equipment to client merchandise — has
surged.
China and Russia have been strengthening their political and
financial ties, fostering a extra conducive setting for commerce.
Elevated vitality exports from Russia to China have additionally facilitated
commerce. Consequently, MHCV exports to Russia rose by 172% from 2021
to 2022, totalling 25,900 models, with heavy vans main this
progress.
Prime exporters to Russia in 2022 included CNHTC, Hongyan,
Jianghuai and Shaanxi Auto Heavy. In 2023, exports to Russia
continued to climb, rising by 90% to surpass 49,300 models.
Projected Export Development to Russia and Different Japanese
Markets
Manufacturers like Dongfeng, FAW, Foton, SANY, and Yutong have additionally
expanded their presence within the Russian market. Based mostly on S&P
World Mobility's
November 2024 export forecast, we challenge exports will rise by
5.7% to 52,200 models, with CNHTC, Dongfeng, FAW and Shaanxi Auto
Heavy anticipated to stay the main exporters.
ASEAN and Africa: Strengthening Ties and Increasing
Market Share
Traditionally, ASEAN and African international locations have been prime export
locations of Chinese language MHCV producers. Chinese language producers
now need to capitalize on native authorities incentives to make their
merchandise extra aggressive and achieve extra market share.
To take action, Chinese language MHCV producers are opening manufacturing or
meeting models both on their very own or in three way partnership with native
gamers in these markets, together with:
- Yutong, which in collaboration with TC Motor Holding is opening
a bus and battery manufacturing unit in Malaysia. - BYD, which in collaboration with Rever Automotive is opening a
truck and bus meeting plant in Thailand. - King Lengthy, which in collaboration with TC Motor Holding began
native meeting of the Nova bus in Vietnam. - Golden Dragon, which is nearing completion of its meeting unit
in Vietnam with a projected capability of 5,000 buses yearly. - CNHTC and Yutong, which can begin native meeting of sure
fashions of vans and buses, respectively, in South Africa.
Our trucking business forecast expects most of those
manufacturing/ meeting models to change into operational by subsequent yr,
which can result in decreased exports to those international locations from
Mainland China (see map, above).
South America: Sturdy Development in Exports to the Andean
Area
Chinese language exports to South American markets, notably within the
Andean area, noticed vital progress in 2022 of 62%, primarily
pushed by elevated gross sales on South America's Pacific coast and in
Chile, Colombia and Ecuador.
Producers reminiscent of Foton, FAW Jiefang, Jianghuai (JAC) and
CNHTC have enhanced their presence in these international locations, resulting in
a formidable 85% rise in MHCV exports from 2021 to 2022.
We anticipate that China will maintain this export stage within the
coming years. Though we anticipate exports to the Mercosur area to
stay secure, we challenge a slight improve for Brazil. Total,
South America is poised to proceed because the third-largest export
marketplace for Chinese language vans and buses, after Russia and ASEAN.
North America: Commerce Boundaries Restrict Development within the
US
In North America, exports to the US — the most important marketplace for
industrial automobiles within the area — will both stay at similar
stage or lower because of the ongoing commerce conflict with China.
Within the brief time period (2023-2026), we forecast a lower in exports
to European international locations and the US as uncertainties over the
geopolitical scenario and commerce obstacles hinder imports from
Mainland China. Nonetheless, exports to Mexico will improve and act as
bridge between the US and Latin American markets.
Mainland China's Increasing World Footprint
Mainland China's position as a prime exporter and its robust export
progress, particularly to areas like Russia and South America,
spotlight its capability to beat geopolitical challenges and
handle provide chain disruptions. Collaborations with native companies in
ASEAN and Africa additional strengthen China's market penetration and
competitiveness.
Though exports to Europe and the US could lower as a result of commerce
tensions, the general outlook stays constructive, with continued
progress projected in key areas. As Chinese language producers increase
their international footprint, they’re well-positioned to take benefit
of latest alternatives within the evolving industrial transportation
market.
For mannequin stage data, readers can consult with our MHCV
Export Module or contact their S&P World consultant.
