I’ve lined electrical automobiles for greater than 15 years, and I’ve seen plenty of ups and downs. However I have been fairly startled by the quantity of anti-Tesla materials, in my feeds and despatched to me personally, over the previous few weeks.
It is from the same old anti-EV myths and nonsense. “I commute 125 miles every manner each day up a 9,000-foot grade towing 14,000 kilos: EVs won’t ever work!” No, this anti-Tesla sentiment is way extra particular. It is all about Elon Musk. And Musk has nobody guilty however himself this time.
Photograph by: White Home
Injury On Many Fronts
Tesla’s long-serving CEO has altered his personal narrative, not drawing consideration for technical innovation however with actions that add as much as a cauldron of extremism: assist for ultra-right-wing causes; a number of alleged Nazi salutes; racist posts and anti-trans agitation on his social community X; and—most essential—his arguably lawless rampage by means of U.S. authorities workplaces as head of the so-called Division of Authorities Effectivity (DOGE).
There are some indications that Musk could also be on the best way out at DOGE, particularly after the Wisconsin Supreme Courtroom race he stumped for and invested in fully backfired. However the harm to Tesla is already evident. European and United Kingdom gross sales have plummeted, and North American gross sales are flat at finest. The automaker introduced this previous week that it delivered 336,681 automobiles globally within the first quarter of 2025, a 13% decline from the identical interval final yr.
However as a lot as Musk is the only face of the model, his latest political actions are just one a part of a storm of issues for Tesla. A lot of it stems from selections by Musk that date again as early as 2019. These actions have led the corporate to its present troubles. It’s value diving into the main points to grasp all of the interlocking elements that face the corporate at this time.
Photograph by: YouTube
Cybertruck: A Gross sales Catastrophe
The novel and polarizing Cybertruck has been a gross sales disaster of Edsel-like proportions. Solely about 50,000 have been offered in North America over greater than a yr, in opposition to projections of many occasions that quantity. Whereas it was America’s best-selling electrical pickup truck in 2024, it now seems that everybody who wished one has most likely purchased one. We now know the market dimension for giant, silver, battery-electric dystopian film props—and it’s not massive sufficient to hold the world’s most useful automotive firm.
Photograph by: InsideEVs
2024 Breakthrough Award Nominee: The Tesla Cybertruck
Worse, in contrast to each earlier Tesla mannequin, the Cybertruck is at present restricted to North America. Its dimension and distinctive development make it a tricky promote—actually—all over the place else on this planet. In December, Tesla stated it had no plans to promote the truck in China “for now.” In Europe, doubts stay over the stainless steel truck’s capability to adjust to pedestrian-protection influence and crush requirements.
For a much-touted subsequent product first proven in 2019 that supposedly obtained 1,000,000 or extra reservations, that appears … restrictive.
Stale Merchandise, Actual Rivals
The extra reasonably priced quantity Teslas, the Mannequin Y crossover and the Mannequin 3 sedan, are actually previous merchandise in a market the place vehicles are up to date each three years and changed totally each 5 to seven. The electrical automobile world is now advancing at a speedy tempo, sooner than gasoline vehicles ever did, however the authentic electrical pioneer is languishing. Certain, the Mannequin Y “Juniper” refresh is simply hitting the U.S. market now, however even the world’s best-selling automotive can solely achieve this a lot in opposition to a large number of latest and infrequently higher rivals.
Photograph by: Andrei Nedelea
2025 Tesla Mannequin Y Launch Sequence (Euro-spec)
This actually wasn’t the case in 2017 when the Mannequin 3 launched and even in early 2020 when the Mannequin Y arrived. Greater than two dozen new EVs from established makers, and Rivian and Lucid too, have hit the market since then. As for China, it’s clearly taken what it wanted from Tesla and has moved on. On many fronts, it’s not as if gross sales will mechanically return to final yr’s ranges in a single day, even absent Musk’s antics.
Plus, even should you actually desire a Tesla, why purchase a brand new one now? With a surging provide of used Teslas available on the market as angered homeowners commerce them in for different EVs, Tesla additionally faces competitors from its personal, “frivolously used” merchandise. Not solely do they give the impression of being just like at this time’s brand-new ones, the falling retail costs of used Teslas make them a surprisingly good worth in opposition to brand-new ones.
Nonetheless No $25,000 Tesla
Final October, Musk introduced the corporate had walked away from the “$25,000 Tesla” he had first promised in 2020. He referred to as the concept of promoting a $25,000 Tesla that wasn’t a robotaxi “pointless” and “foolish.” His feedback got here only some months after he stated Chinese language EVs are so good that with out commerce obstacles, “they are going to just about demolish most different automotive corporations on this planet.” Trigger and impact? It appears totally attainable.
Photograph by: Theophilus Chin | Motor1
Tesla Extra Inexpensive Compact EV
Affordability is more and more a barrier to new-car gross sales in North America, and the market desperately wants cheaper vehicles typically. A very reasonably priced EV may promote like gangbusters, and Tesla was maybe finest positioned to have delivered it.
Now, that section will apparently be ceded to Hyundai and Kia, and the upcoming revised Chevrolet Bolt EV.
China Is Over It
In early 2020, simply because the world entered lockdown, Shanghai-built Tesla Mannequin 3s went on sale in China. The Mannequin Y adopted inside a yr. Collectively the 2 vehicles ignited a ardour for EVs in Chinese language patrons that home manufacturers had by no means incited. They introduced a tech-forward Western automotive model into the center of China’s auto market—and gross sales from the Shanghai gigafactory soared.
These days are over. Amidst vastly improved choices from Chinese language makers that benefitted from heavy subsidies early on and may now higher meet the wants of native prospects, Teslas are actually seen as previous, stale, and much from aggressive with the most recent home manufacturers, particularly within the software program and infotainment providers they provide. In China, Tesla is seen as a dependable and confirmed model, however now removed from groundbreaking.
Need proof? Even the up to date Mannequin Y could not reverse an 11.5% gross sales decline in China, the place DOGE and Musk’s politics are hardly a priority for EV patrons.
The ‘Charging Moat’ Is Gone
When Tesla introduced in 2012 that it will construct its personal, nationwide, DC fast-charging community, the remainder of the {industry} thought it was insane. Loopy like a fox, perhaps. Inside two years, it was attainable to drive a Tesla cross-country whereas the competing CCS charging customary utilized by different EV makers was nonetheless being finalized. Deeply built-in into the automotive, Supercharging was seamless, correct, and orders of magnitude above the expertise in some other EV available on the market.
In 2023, Ford struck a take care of Tesla to let its EVs cost at Superchargers. Basic Motors did the identical inside weeks, and the remainder of the {industry} breathlessly adopted. For Tesla, the benefit is added income to proceed increasing the Supercharger community’s function as the most important canine within the North American charging world.
Photograph by: Patrick George
The flip facet is that Tesla’s “charging moat” in North America, usually the one strongest purpose to suggest a Tesla, is now gone. Tesla drivers not have their very own, devoted, unquestionably higher charging community. Now, plebes have that too. (Europe mandated a standard connector years in the past, so Tesla charging stations have lengthy served all EVs in these markets.)
If you happen to can get a Tesla-esque EV now, maybe with even higher vary and options, that may nonetheless entry the Supercharger community with none of the Musk baggage, why wouldn’t you go for it?
The Robotaxi Obsession
Maybe most troublesome, Musk seems to have misplaced curiosity within the onerous enterprise of constructing and promoting vehicles to customers. He’s all in on so-called self-driving, with the corporate pivoting to a “robotaxi” enterprise mannequin wherein it’s going to construct automobiles that may function in networks it owns to offer on-demand driverless taxi providers. And he has claimed the corporate can promote 2 to 4 million of its proposed Cybercab fashions a yr.
Photograph by: InsideEVs
Tesla Cybercab, LA Auto Present 2024
That automobile, a two-seat hatchback, raised eyebrows when displayed final fall: cabs with solely two passenger seats are nearly nonexistent. The Robovan is a novel idea, however there’s been zero proof since its debut that it’ll ever be something greater than that. Rumors have urged a cheaper addition to the Tesla line may be the Cybercab automobile, however with a steering wheel and driver controls.
But two-seat automobiles have solely ever been a tiny fraction of the U.S. market, so it must have a jaw-droppingly low worth to get critical consideration. The best gross sales yr ever for the Good ForTwo was 2009, when 14,600 discovered patrons. It solely offered even 10,000 models once more as soon as.
Photograph by: Tesla
As for self-driving software program, whereas Tesla’s vision-only system could not less than arguably be one of the best Stage 2 (eyes-on, hands-on) system available on the market, most analysts say it is nowhere close to prepared for hands-off operation—not to mention full eyes-off autonomy that may dispense with a driver.
Analyst Sam Abuelsamid, vp of market analysis of Telemetry, was blunt in regards to the thought of tens of millions of Cybercabs a yr: “That’s simply by no means going to occur so long as they persist with a camera-only system.” In the meantime, GM, Ford, Mercedes, and others already provide hands-off energetic cruise management through a number of sensors. Tesla methods nonetheless require drivers to maintain their palms on the wheel.
What The Specialists Say
I reached out to 3 auto-industry analysts and requested every the headline query: Can Tesla survive Musk? All three stated sure, however with appreciable nuance.
Stephanie Brinley of S&P World was cautiously optimistic. “I believe it’s possible. Possibly it isn’t assured, however it’s extra doubtless that Tesla will survive and in the end nonetheless thrive,” she stated. Brinley cited a number of scandals survived by main makers, together with VW’s international emissions deceptions, each tire separation and Pinto fires for Ford, main security remembers for GM, and so forth.
Telemetry’s Sam Abuelsamid agreed Tesla can survive. However, he stated, “It should must be a special firm than the one we’ve develop into accustomed to.” He urged its progress days are behind it, its potential to realize the widely-touted 20 million models a yr is “close to zero,” and its gross sales in China will proceed to say no. He referred to as the promise of tens of millions of robotaxis a “fantasy,” and summarized its prospects this fashion: “It’s a smaller firm for the longer term.”
Photograph by: Andrei Nedelea
2025 Tesla Mannequin Y Launch Sequence (Euro-spec)
“Tesla’s undoubtedly been a game-changer and a frontrunner within the EV area,” stated Robby DeGraff, supervisor of product and shopper insights on the analysis agency AutoPacific. “However the actuality is that there are such a lot of different higher and extra compelling choices on the market for patrons. Tesla is extra in danger than ever of being overtaken by the competitors, no matter market.”
In the meantime, longtime Tesla bull Dan Ives at Wedbush Securities stated final week the harm to the Tesla model has now escalated into “a model twister disaster second for Musk and Tesla.” He referred to as on Musk to return to the helm of the corporate, of which he stays the nominal CEO.
‘Not Recoverable’
I additionally reached out to a enterprise capitalist in Silicon Valley, who requested anonymity to remark as a consequence of overlapping skilled and social circles with Tesla backers—and had a much less sanguine view. “Each different tech government understands the levers of their enterprise and makes decisions to guard that,” this particular person stated. “Musk appears to not have estimated the influence [his actions] would have on Tesla. It’s clear his politics and political actions usually are not usually constant along with his prospects.”
They added, “He both didn’t care about defending his Tesla enterprise or didn’t understand there can be this type of backlash. Or each. I believe he has performed irreparable harm to the model; I don’t consider the model is recoverable. Tesla is useless to the individuals who have been almost certainly to be Tesla patrons.”
These Who Ignore Historical past…
Skilled auto reporters, analysts and even short-sellers have realized by means of painful expertise to not wager in opposition to Tesla or Musk. We cannot know for years if the corporate has run by means of its proverbial 9 lives. Whether or not you personally purchase a Tesla, or promote one you personal, actually stays your alternative. However Tesla faces headwinds on nearly each entrance, in ways in which could put its future viability into appreciable doubt.
The corporate’s future appears as tenuous now because it has in fairly a while, maybe since Musk needed to fund payroll out of his personal pocket earlier than the Mannequin S launch. It is onerous to consider a model that mixes stale merchandise with a poisonous and extremely public CEO to the identical extent. The one two examples I can give you are McAfee and MyPillow. Neither of them required something just like the multi-year, multi-billion-dollar investments essential to reach the worldwide auto {industry}.
Photograph by: Tesla
So it is instructive to achieve again by means of automotive historical past for classes. One is that the businesses that pioneer radical new applied sciences or automobiles usually are not essentially people who revenue in the long run from these improvements. 4-wheel hydraulic brakes have been launched in 1921 by Duesenberg. Disc brakes arrived in 1949 on Crosleys (in addition to Chryslers). Gasoline direct injection, invented by Bosch, was first used on a wide range of small two-stroke engines from now-vanished German makers. Breaking new floor with superior automobiles could be very onerous, very time-consuming, and infrequently not very worthwhile.
A favourite car-trivia query stays this one: Which firm pioneered mass-market gross sales of transverse-engine, front-wheel-drive small vehicles? That revolutionary powertrain, crafted within the days when rear-engined small vehicles reigned supreme, was supremely space-efficient and set the template for 60 years of small vehicles.
The reply to the query is British Motor Company. It not exists.
BMC’s issues stemmed from a poisonous stew of unhealthy administration, unhealthy high quality, and unhealthy product selections. Many years of executives acted in ways in which proved too little, too late; nobody particular person may be blamed for the collapse of the British mass-market automotive {industry}.
Photograph by: InsideEVs
Tesla, then again, is just about the only product of 1 man. A lot of its earliest, and most influential executives—CTO JT Straubel, battery government Kurt Kelty—left way back. The selections that led Tesla to its present circumstance appear to have been made solely by Musk.
Until he’s eliminated by the corporate’s board–which at this time appears extremely unlikely–historical past will report that the final word destiny of the best EV pioneer of this century rested totally with him. For higher or for worse.
John Voelcker covers superior auto applied sciences and power coverage as a reporter and analyst, specializing in electrical automobiles and the power ecosystem round them. He edited Inexperienced Automotive Studies for 9 years, and his work has appeared in Automotive and Driver, The Drive, Forbes Wheels, Wired, Well-liked Science and NPR’s “All Issues Thought of.”
