Donte Whitner. I don’t know why sure solutions pop into my head when I attempt to recall previous examples of draft hype, however after I consider surprising top-10 picks up to now the primary identify that involves me is Donte Whitner.
There isn’t lots left on the web from earlier than the 2006 draft, however Soccer’s Future wrote of Whitner on the time that “He has an out of doors shot of touchdown within the top-50.” This mock draft from the day of the draft on DraftKing.com had Whitner going thirty first to the Seahawks. This one has him going twenty fourth to the Bengals. A author on the Patriots web site had him going with the final choose, thirty second to the Steelers.
From what’s left in that period that we will collect, the final expectation was that Donte Whitner can be a late first or second-round choose, and certainly the draft grades had been harsh for a Payments group that picked him eighth total: “They reached”; “They overreached”; “They may have traded again”.
Because it turned out, whether or not they picked Donte Whitner sooner than they needed to or not, the Payments picked a two-time Professional Bowler who performed 11 seasons within the NFL and was a lot better than the primary security off the board, Michael Huff, and he wasn’t referred to as a “attain”.
Who might be the “Donte Whitner” of the 2024 draft, whether or not that’s as a top-10 choose or a shock first rounder? There isn’t a clear reply as a result of there hasn’t been a robust consensus of picks previous the highest 5 or 6, no one is aware of who the primary defensive participant off the board might be. However there will certainly be some big surprises on Thursday evening.
Prime 10: DT Byron Murphy, Texas
There’s a little bit of assist brewing for Byron Murphy II to be the primary defensive participant drafted on Thursday with plenty of notable analysts, together with NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks, mocking him to the Atlanta Falcons with the eighth total choose. Murphy has mentioned that he doesn’t anticipate to make it out of the top-16 based mostly on what he’s heard from groups and added that he has a “Marshawn Lynch mentality” on the defensive deal with place.
Two issues from this:
1) Byron Murphy having a Marshawn Lynch mentality at DT makes a lot sense.
2) Murphy mentioned he’s been advised he gained’t slide previous choose No. 16. https://t.co/lJGfEp4PWQ
— Joseph Hoyt (@JoeJHoyt) April 23, 2024
Tim Murray of the sports activities playing website VSIN wrote that Murray’s +300 odds to be a top-10 choose is an effective wager, in addition to 10-to-1 to be the primary defensive participant, arguing he may go to the Falcons at eight or Bears at 9.
The rationale for Murphy’s “rise” comes right down to the tenacity and depth with which he performs a premium place that lacks many game-changers within the NFL. Former No. 2 total choose Chris Lengthy famous on his Inexperienced Light podcast this week that he’s “amazed” by Murphy and thinks that whereas the league has about 25 good edge rushers who aren’t within the prime or second tier, the defensive deal with place has an enormous hole between one of the best and the great. He thinks Murphy is a Day 1 starter and on monitor to be top-of-the-line defensive tackles within the NFL.
Once we ask what groups are keen to do within the draft to get a game-changing defensive deal with, we discover the next latest outcomes:
In 2023, Tyree Wilson went seventh (he’s listed as an edge however many consultants felt he ought to transfer inside) and Jalen Carter went ninth, however Carter would have gone within the prime 5 if not for character issues.
In 2022, Jordan Davis went thirteenth.
In 2020, Derrick Brown went seventh, Javon Kinlaw went 14th.
In 2019, Quinnen Williams went third, Ed Oliver went ninth, Christian Wilkins went thirteenth, Dexter Lawrence went seventeenth, Jeffery Simmons went nineteenth.
Two issues I discover: There aren’t many premium defensive deal with prospects yearly excluding 2019, and that was 5 years in the past. And there’s no manner that this yr’s prime defensive deal with prospect goes to get out of the primary 12 picks. If Murphy isn’t on par with Carter and Williams, he’s at the least nearly as good of a prospect as Brown and Oliver.
You will note mock drafts which have Murphy going as late to the Rams at 19. He’s more likely to go to the Falcons at 8, Bears at 9, and perhaps even the Vikings at 11 in the event that they don’t get a quarterback with their first choose. As a result of the distinction between the highest edge rushers and the following tier of edge rushers is far tougher to differentiate than the distinction between Murphy, then Johnny Newton of Illinois, then everybody else at defensive deal with
Prime 14: WR Brian Thomas, Jr., LSU
I’ve little question, if it weren’t for the presence of three top-10 picks in the identical broad receiver class, there wouldn’t even be a debate about Brian Thomas going within the first 14 picks. When you took Thomas because the prospect he’s right this moment however put him within the 2023 broad receiver class, he would most definitely be the primary receiver off the board (Jaxon Smith-Njigba at twentieth total was the primary receiver picked final yr) and related to receiver-needy groups within the prime 10.
It could be a lazy comp to say that groups might be nervous about passing Thomas within the draft after they made the blunder of passing on one other LSU receiver within the 2020 draft named Justin Jefferson, however there’s a non-zero probability that he’s going to get a bump for a lazy comparability.
Jefferson had 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns in his third yr at LSU and was the twenty second choose of the draft, fifth at receiver. NFL.com gave Jefferson a prospect grade of 6.46.
Thomas had 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns in his third yr at LSU and is projected because the fourth receiver within the 2024 class. NFL.com has given Thomas a prospect grade of 6.47.
The purpose isn’t that Thomas might be like Jefferson; the purpose is that individuals didn’t know that Justin Jefferson can be Justin Jefferson, so with comparable prospects a lot of them are asking themselves, “What’s it that I don’t learn about this participant?” Possibly there’s nothing to overlook. Or perhaps you’ve talked your self out of a choose that might be very apparent.
Thomas proved all the things he wanted to show in school, he had the second-highest athleticism rating on the mix in a extremely aggressive class of supreme athletes, he ran a 4.33 40 and a 1.50 10-yard cut up with a 38.5” vertical at 6’3, 209 kilos with virtually 33” arms. If Brian Thomas weren’t being in contrast towards Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison, Jr., (we don’t even know if Thomas couldn’t be a greater athlete than them since they didn’t check), he can be the receiver that no one doubts goes within the first 10-12 picks. I’m being somewhat bit extra conservative right here by preserving it to the highest 14, however Thomas has the resume to go prime 10. Chris Simms ranked Thomas second total, forward of Harrison and Rome Odunze.
At NFL Mock Draft Database, Thomas has a median draft place of 18th in mocks and the best anybody has him going not too long ago is fifteenth to the Colts by Rotoballer’s Kyle Lindemann. I imagine Thomas may go larger than his highest projection.
Even with three receivers anticipated to go forward of him, Thomas must be a consideration for plenty of groups: What if the Bears think about him if all three receivers go within the prime 8? What concerning the Jets at 10 in the event that they determine that Garrett Wilson wants a working mate? If the Broncos don’t love the obtainable quarterbacks, may Sean Payton want a No. 1 receiver after buying and selling Jerry Jeudy? The Raiders at 13 are at all times a risk to select one of many quickest gamers in any draft. The Saints at 14 are determined for brand new life on offense.
The record goes on, however Thomas is nice sufficient to get taken a lot sooner than the projection. Groups ready till 16 could be too late.
First spherical: CB/S Ennis Rakestraw, Missouri
Whereas the NFL served among the league’s prime safeties with pink slips (Justin Simmons, Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, Kevin Byard, Jordan Poyer, and many others.) these strikes don’t essentially point out a devaluation of the place. Antoine Winfield acquired a $17 million franchise tag. Xavier McKinney acquired a contract price almost $17 million per season. Jessie Bates was top-of-the-line signings throughout all of 2023 free company and he makes $16 million per season.
There are extra safeties making at the least $9 million per season than there are linebackers making $9 million per season, and simply as many tight ends making at the least $9 million per season (14).
These gamers who acquired launched simply reached some extent of their careers the place they weren’t price as a lot as their paychecks and that occurs to gamers each place with regularity. NFL groups need nice safeties, they’re simply having a tougher time discovering them currently and maybe the reply is: school cornerbacks.
Chris Simms’ prime 2 security prospects within the draft didn’t even play security in school: Iowa’s Cooper DeJean and Missouri’s Ennis Rakestraw.
DeJean is already projected as a first-round choose, however Rakestraw’s odds to make Spherical 1 would possibly truly be simply nearly as good.
The 5’11, 183-pound cornerback out of Missouri with 32” arms, who ran a 4.51 40 on the mix, Rakestraw isn’t in very many first-round mocks (he was in Mel Kiper’s first of the yr) and if he’s it’s someplace within the final three picks. PFT’s Mike Florio has the Chiefs taking him with the final choose of the primary spherical in his one and solely mock draft of the yr. NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks did the identical.
Is Rakestraw a reputation that will get thrown round by league sources as a participant to observe as a first-round shock?
ESPN’s Matt Miller wouldn’t assume so, he mocked Rakestraw seventeenth to the Jaguars and he put Ennis Rakestraw in his top-20 for the 2024 class and he compares him to Tre’Davious White:
“Ennis Rakestraw, somebody who’s been slept on somewhat bit popping out of Missouri,” mentioned Miller. “He wasn’t capable of take part within the Senior Bowl due to a core muscle surgical procedure. He’ll be figuring out right here in Indy, I anticipate them to do very nicely. He’s a top-20 participant on my board, compares very favorably to Tre’Davious White. He’s feisty and bodily on the line of scrimmage, nice in press protection. Right here’s my favourite stat. LSU threw at him one time final yr – he didn’t allow them to full a move, they by no means went his manner once more. That prolific LSU offense stayed away from Rakestraw. So we all know he’s a gifted participant.”
And that’s simply as a cornerback, the place most anticipate. Nonetheless, a part of the rationale he’s not ranked as excessive as the opposite corners is that he’s not almost nearly as good of an athlete as they’re, he’s not as massive as some, his protection abilities want work however he’s a beast in run assist and thought of a prime tackler on the place. Sort of like a security.
Groups might be in search of that “subsequent Kyle Hamilton” this yr and with no solutions on the precise security place, a cornerback like DeJean or Rakestraw having the ability to play within the nickel or near the road of scrimmage as a security might be the reply. If it was only a matter of taking part in outdoors nook, Rakestraw could be a Day 3 lock. However as one of the crucial aggressive and simply coachable gamers within the draft who might be moved across the discipline like a chess piece, Rakestraw could be the fashionable match for a group on the finish of the primary spherical.
Payments, Lions, 49ers, Chiefs: All of them make sense as a result of loads of groups may use a security. In reality, perhaps extra groups than ever want one.
