It’s been virtually six months because the first rumors emerged about Brandon Aiyuk’s standing with the 49ers, and by some means it’s nonetheless happening. Contract talks slowed, then froze all along with the All-Professional receiver, and the writing was on the wall in April when San Francisco drafted Ricky Pearsall within the first spherical — a doable future substitute for Aiyuk.
Simmering commerce rumors lingered for a lot of the summer time, however it felt as if the 49ers have been going to play Aiyuk in 2024, see if they may win, and resign themselves to dropping him in free company subsequent 12 months. Coaching camp dashed these hopes when Aiyuk started a holdout, and the warmth was turned as much as make all the pieces boil over. Now we’ve got a state of affairs the place 4 groups have thrown their hat within the ring, however solely two actually have an opportunity, all whereas Niners star Christian McCaffrey is now referring to Aiyuk as his “former teammate.”
At this level we all know there are 4 groups enjoying cat and mouse with the 49ers over Aiyuk — all of whom are vacillating between clearly wanting the receiver, whereas additionally making certain they don’t upset their present roster. The Steelers, Browns, Patriots and Commanders appear are all in, and that appears to be the order of risk by way of a touchdown spot. The query turns into what they may supply, and whether or not Aiyuk desires to go.
Pittsburgh Steelers
This feels just like the inevitable house for Brandon Aiyuk when the mud settles. That is his most well-liked vacation spot, and the crew he appears most keen to signal a contract extension with — which is a important factor of a possible commerce.
On the floor it seems like a little bit of an odd match. The Steelers are an excellent defensive crew, however the offense has been shaky and it’s unclear what their long-term plan at quarterback can be. The crew has Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. They’re in nice form in comparison with lots of NFL groups, however Wilson and Fields are dramatically totally different passers who don’t actually mesh collectively in a cohesive offense.
The wild card issue is Mike Tomlin. Probably the most beloved and revered coaches within the NFL, Tomlin has at all times had a transparent lower No. 1 “alpha” receiver who turns into a star. Because it stands that’s George Pickens, however Aiyuk and Pickens may arguably be the perfect receiver tandem within the league, with Aiyuk filling the function of that prime man.
What makes this troublesome is that the Steelers don’t appear to have commerce belongings the 49ers are taken with. San Francisco seemingly desires a receiver who will help them win proper now and draft belongings for the long run. Outdoors of Pickens (who isn’t shifting), the receiver expertise drops off a cliff for the Steelers and turns into gamers the 49ers wouldn’t need.
It’s a purchaser’s market on Aiyuk proper now, and everybody is aware of it. That might pressure the 49ers’ hand into accepting lower than they need simply to allow them to transfer on.
Likelihood Brandon Aiyuk is traded to the Steelers: 40%
Cleveland Browns
This is able to possible be the perfect state of affairs for each groups by way of a uncooked commerce. Rumored framework of a deal would ship Amari Cooper and draft picks to the 49ers in trade for Aiyuk.
Basically it places San Francisco again on even floor. Like Aiyuk, Cooper is getting into the ultimate 12 months of his contract — that means the 49ers get a weapon proper now to minimize the impression of dropping their All Professional, plus a important 12 months to get Pearsall in control together with future draft picks in addition. It looks as if a win-win, and offers Cleveland a receiver improve who may gel higher with Deshaun Watson within the offense this 12 months.
The sticking level appears to be whether or not the Browns are keen to make a deal that features draft belongings if Aiyuk will not be keen to signal a long-term extension there. A straight-up commerce for Cooper isn’t what the Niners need, and if that’s the perfect supply they get from Cleveland then it’s extra possible they merely pull Aiyuk off the block, play hardball, and see if he’ll play for them.
Likelihood Brandon Aiyuk is traded to the Browns: 20%
New England Patriots
The wild card in all that is New England. If the Steelers are the crew Aiyuk desires, however the Niners don’t, then the Patriots are the precise reverse. Nonetheless a rebuilding crew, draft belongings from the Patriots could be very intriguing to San Francisco, who may possible land a Prime 10 choose within the 2nd spherical (presumably) plus one thing extra for Aiyuk.
Receiver Kendrick Bourne has usually been talked about because the established participant on this deal. He’s nowhere close to nearly as good as Aiyuk or Cooper — however he’s an honest participant who matches the 49ers offense fairly properly.
The largest concern is that Aiyuk doesn’t need to go to the Patriots. There are experiences he wouldn’t signal a long-term contract to be there by means of a rebuild, and there’s little query it could be a serious aggressive step again.
At this level New England is making an attempt to avoid wasting face by saying they’re “completely satisfied” with their present gamers, which is actually code for “Aiyuk doesn’t need us, and we don’t need to look unhealthy to free brokers subsequent 12 months.” Proper now this appears useless within the water — however there’s nonetheless an out of doors likelihood.
Likelihood Brandon Aiyuk is traded to the Patriots: 5%
Washington Commanders
Why have been the Commanders talked about on this in any respect? Most likely as a result of the Commanders get pleasure from being talked about in any massive NFL information. This was fully fueled by Jayden Daniels and Aiyuk having a relationship from their time at Arizona State, and little extra.
It’s unclear what belongings the Commanders would have provided. It’s unclear whether or not Aiyuk would need to go there. This by no means actually made a lot sense, and now they’re apparently “out” on a possible commerce it’s unclear whether or not they have been ever “in.”
Nonetheless, let’s throw them a sliver of a bone as a result of the NFL is a bizarre place and something can occur.
Likelihood Brandon Aiyuk is traded to the Commanders: 1%
San Francisco 49ers
Probably the most possible situations in all that is that nothing occurs in any respect. The factor concerning the 49ers is that they’re completely completely satisfied to simply let all the pieces play out, get a compensatory choose, and hold all the pieces shifting ahead.
Clearly the Niners are a dramatically weaker crew with out Aiyuk. Nonetheless, Aiyuk can be dramatically weaker getting into free company if he refuses to play. On the finish of the day these two would possibly want one another greater than they understand proper now, and cooler heads may prevail as we strategy the beginning of the common season.
It feels unlikely {that a} long-term contract will come to go, however enjoying out this 12 months and parting methods nonetheless seems like a serious risk.
Likelihood Brandon Aiyuk stays with the 49ers: 34%
