Since Iran’s October 1 missile assault on Israel in response to the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, there was a lot hypothesis about how Tel Aviv will retaliate. Some observers have prompt that it might hit Iranian oil installations, and others, its nuclear services.
US President Joe Biden’s administration appears to oppose each choices, but it surely has accepted the deployment of a Terminal Excessive Altitude Space Protection (THAAD) missile defence system and United States troops to Israel, presumably in anticipation of an Iranian response to an Israeli strike.
In the meantime, Biden’s political adversary, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, has egged on Israel to “hit the nuclear first”. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has additionally prompt the identical.
Whereas Trump, Kushner and different staunch Israel supporters are joyful to cheer on an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear services, they probably know little or no concerning the penalties of one other such Israeli assault that focused an Iraqi nuclear website.
Israel’s destruction of Iraq’s French-built Osiraq nuclear reactor in 1981 really pushed what was largely a peaceable nuclear programme underground and motivated Iraqi chief Saddam Hussein to put money into the pursuit of a nuclear weapon. An aggressive act in opposition to Iran’s nuclear programme will probably have an identical impact.
A ‘pre-emptive’ strike
Iraq’s nuclear programme began within the Sixties with the USSR constructing a small nuclear analysis reactor and offering it with some know-how. Within the Nineteen Seventies, Iraq bought a much bigger reactor from France – known as Osiraq – and expanded its civilian nuclear programme with important French and Italian help.
The French authorities had made positive that technical measures had been in place to stop any doable twin use of the reactor and it shared this info with the US, Israel’s closest ally. Iraq, which was a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and had its nuclear websites inspected repeatedly by the Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company (IAEA), was not “getting ready to” growing a nuclear weapon, as Israel falsely asserted.
Nonetheless, the Israeli authorities, which was going through rising discontent domestically and a possible loss on the approaching legislative elections, determined to proceed with the “pre-emptive” strike.
On June 7, 1981, US-made F-15 and F-16 fighter jets flew from Israel, refuelled mid-air, and carried out a strike on the Osiraq reactor, utterly destroying it and killing three Iraqi civilians and one French engineer.
The assault provoked nationalist fervour amongst Israelis that helped Prime Minister Menachem Start pinch a slender victory within the elections three weeks later.
A trove of declassified US paperwork launched in 2021 demonstrates that Israel’s strike didn’t eradicate Iraq’s programme, however slightly made Saddam extra decided to accumulate a nuclear weapon.
It additionally motivated extra Iraqi scientists to enroll to work on their nation’s nuclear programme. As Iraqi nuclear scientist Jafar Dhia Jafar wrote in his memoir: “the Israeli bombing of Tammuz I [i.e. Osiraq] had infuriated many, and so they had been virtually forming a line to take part in ending the Jewish state’s monopoly of nuclear weapons within the Center East.” They proved to be extra priceless to Saddam than the {hardware} – the reactor – that he misplaced within the assault.
Within the following years, Saddam’s regime made nuclear actions clandestine and began reaching out to nuclear powers like Pakistan to hunt help in growing capabilities that could possibly be used to provide a nuclear weapon. It additionally tried to rebuild the destroyed reactor.
These efforts slowed down solely within the early Nineties as a result of first Gulf Battle, which decimated Iraqi infrastructure, and the following sanctions, which drained state coffers.
The results of a strike on Iran
Over the previous few years, quite a few Iranian nuclear scientists have been assassinated. Most just lately, in November 2020, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a nuclear physicist and high-ranking member of the nuclear programme, was shot useless in an ambush close to Tehran. Iran has accused Israel of finishing up this assassination and others prior to now.
Whereas these assassinations could have killed key cadres, they’ve impressed a brand new technology of Iranians to pursue nuclear science, a part of an Iranian “nuclear nationalism” rising because of the fixed assaults on Iran’s nuclear programme.
The occasions since October 7, 2023 have additional fuelled this sentiment. A ballot carried out between February and Might this 12 months confirmed that not solely has public assist in Iran for a peaceable nuclear programme remained extremely excessive, however that now there’s a rising public consensus the nation ought to purchase a nuclear weapon. Some 69 p.c of the respondents within the survey stated they might assist it.
Clearly, Israel’s actions up to now are solely rising Iranian dedication to proceed its nuclear programme. A strike on any of its nuclear services would make that dedication even stronger. And if we’re to go by the Iraqi instance, it could drive the Iranian nuclear programme underground and speed up it in the direction of the event of a nuclear weapon.
At the moment, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself in his predecessor Start’s sneakers. He’s additionally main a authorities extensively criticised for numerous failures, together with the one on October 7, 2023. He’s additionally determined to point out the Israeli public a “victory”.
However what Netanyahu is doing in Gaza and Lebanon now and can do in Iran won’t deliver victory to Israel. His technique produces resentment in these nations and throughout the Center East, which can assist Iran and its allies rebuild swiftly no matter capabilities they lose to reckless Israeli strikes.
The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially replicate Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
