By all quantifiable measures, Bangladesh’s now deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was essentially the most entrenched, dominant and brutal dictator the nation had seen since its independence. She jailed, exiled and eradicated most of her political friends like no different ruler in South Asia’s historical past. She introduced all of the branches of the Bangladeshi state below her command with such nice efficacy that in some unspecified time in the future she turned the state.
But, a leaderless motion of faculty college students challenged her with marches with pre-announced dates and venues. In a matter of weeks, these younger revolutionaries drew the nation with them into the streets to the purpose that Hasina needed to catch a helicopter to flee. They achieved one thing that established political rivals of the previous prime minister had tried for over a decade however failed constantly.
Whereas the younger revolutionaries and their supporters have a lot trigger to have fun, the highway forward for the nation is not going to be with out challenges.
A recipe for a profitable pupil motion
The start of the tip for Hasina got here as a bunch of younger individuals began making calls for for the removing of an unfair quota system within the distribution of civil service jobs, which was primarily giving preferential remedy to the family members of her political cronies.
In organising their protests, the scholars created a distributed co-leadership construction, the place the leaders held the function of coordinators. They referred to as their coalition the College students Towards Discrimination motion. The coordinators got here from each private and non-private academic establishments.
What might have been quelled with some easy guarantees of future reforms was infected by crass feedback by the prime minister and brutal suppression by her safety forces. However the protest organisers have been battle-tested and knew precisely what to anticipate.
Simply six years in the past, a lot of them had participated as youngsters in one other huge wave of demonstrations which targeted on the nation’s lawless transportation sector. These protests erupted after a industrial bus ran over two college students. The car that brought about these deaths was owned by an organization linked to a relative of a minister.
Identical to in 2024, in 2018 the youth have been overwhelmed mercilessly by Hasina’s civilian militia, that’s, the coed wing of the Awami League get together. Using violence managed to suppress the protests, however not earlier than this era of revolutionaries had gained sufficient expertise in organising profitable protests, creating different command constructions, utilizing improvised communication strategies below web blockades and evading authorities surveillance, and many others.
All of those abilities helped them of their profitable bid to oust essentially the most ruthless dictator in Bangladesh’s historical past.
Is that this the tip for Sheikh Hasina?
Hasina has needed to go away Bangladesh earlier than. Whereas she was residing in Europe, a bloody coup passed off towards her father, President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, in 1975, which killed nearly all of her household. She prolonged her keep overseas and solely got here again to the nation within the early Eighties. She shortly gained prominence on the political scene and managed to create a cult-like following among the many members of her father’s Awami League.
Following one other army coup in 2006, each Hasina and her predominant political rival, Khaleda Zia, have been about to lose their proper to take part in politics in Bangladesh. Zia refused to enter exile and stayed in Bangladesh below home arrest. Hasina took the secure exit and frolicked in Europe and the USA earlier than returning to Bangladesh. She contested the 2008 election and received with a landslide.
However her triumphant return to energy in 2008 is unlikely to be repeated. Given the huge bloodshed and indiscriminate killings that passed off all through her tenure, it is going to be extraordinarily tough for the 76-year-old Hasina to revive her political fortunes this time.
Basic Waker Uz Zaman, the army chief who ultimately requested Hasina to depart the nation, occurs to be a relative of hers by marriage. Nevertheless, the potential for a profitable counter-coup to facilitate her return to Bangladesh is inconceivable in the intervening time, given the favored resentment in direction of her rule.
The truth that no different political determine of her stature had ever needed to flee the nation going through the trend of the individuals has completely broken Hasina’s popularity as an invincible chief. In spite of everything, she was chased away by a whole lot of hundreds of youths wielding sticks and bricks, whereas her males had all of the weapons and have been capturing indiscriminately. This inglorious exit will make her future comeback politically untenable.
What lies forward for Bangladesh
An interim caretaker authorities headed by one among Hasina’s nemeses, Dr Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh’s solely Nobel laureate, was sworn in on August 8, three days after Hasina fled. Dr Yunus, one of many few outstanding political figures who’s revered throughout the nation, would be the chief adviser, a title equal to prime minister.
The 16-person advisers’ panel (the equal to cupboard ministers) that he selected contains civil society luminaries, a number of of whom had acquired worldwide accolades. Among the many advisers are two main coordinators from the ranks of the coed motion. Dr Yunus and his chosen advisers acquired constructive media and public acceptance to this point, however they’ve a tough job forward.
In the mean time, pupil organisers are demanding Bangladeshi politics to be cleaned of politicians related to corruption and mismanagement, not simply throughout Hasina’s rule but additionally within the governments that got here earlier than her.
The difficulty is that Hasina’s political DNA is present in each nook of the Bangladeshi state she left behind. Her hand-picked judges, bureaucrats, police and army commanders are nonetheless working the present. Making the brand new authorities acceptable to the individuals would require a messy means of administrative reshuffle, terminations and outright arrests of Hasina’s personnel, a course of that has already begun.
Throughout his first televised speech, Basic Zaman promised to convey justice to the victims of indiscriminate killings by the state equipment throughout Hasina’s reign. Newly appointed advisers of the interim authorities echoed this intention. That accountability course of, nonetheless, will definitely be prolonged and it’s not clear if it could ever be accomplished below their watch. Reforming the police, civil forms and army command to revive individuals’s confidence in any future electoral course of will even take time.
Dr Yunus additionally has to handle varied challenges in relations with Bangladesh’s two large neighbours: India and China.
India, the nation that was the chief defender of Hasina on the world stage, is each shocked and saddened by her departure. It has safety considerations in regards to the attainable breakdown of regulation and order, and focused repression of the massive Bangladeshi Hindu inhabitants.
Gobinda Chandra Pramanik, one among Bangladesh’s most outstanding Hindu neighborhood leaders, has sought to assuage Indian fears, stating that Hindus are going through simply as a lot anarchy as the remainder of the nation in the intervening time and issues are regularly calming down as volunteers from main political events are displaying as much as defend the Hindu neighborhood.
The cupboard of advisers and main political events generally might have to handle Indian strain in order that personnel who posed critical nationwide safety threats to that nation don’t return to energy. That negotiation will likely be difficult.
Hasina’s geopolitical chessboard was to counter American considerations on human rights by addressing India’s safety fears and fascinating with China’s enterprise pursuits. Now, the longer term authorities could also be busy blunting Indian safety considerations by delivering on the People’ anxieties about China. Orchestrating this geopolitical dance will profit from the broad worldwide acceptance that Dr Yunus brings, however execution and supply should be tough.
The principle process for the interim authorities stays organising a brand new normal election. Calls for for a tribunal to prosecute hundreds of unlawful deaths and gross human rights violations both regionally or internationally might make issues difficult for the Awami League’s participation in a future nationwide election. The get together itself may additionally predicate its future electoral participation on circumstances favouring a return of Hasina’s clan, if not Hasina herself.
All different events will even should navigate authorized difficulties, given the intense prison prices filed below Hasina towards her political opponents to make them ineligible for contesting elections. That features Tarique Rahman, the de facto chief of the Bangladesh Nationalist Occasion, who’s serving a life sentence over his alleged function in a 2004 plot to assassinate Hasina. Bangladesh’s largest Islamic political get together, Jamaat-e-Islami, was banned on August 3 and had been barred from working in elections since 2013.
Given the immense hurdles, it’s seemingly the present interim authorities in Bangladesh will final a number of months, if not not less than a 12 months. Upon swearing in, the advisers gave no indication concerning the period of their tenure.
Many Bangladeshis are calling the overthrow of Hasina their second independence – the primary one being breaking away from Pakistan 53 years in the past.
There may be exuberance and hope for a greater future in every single place. However optimism needs to be cautious. Whether or not this newest revolution enshrines a fairer, freer, much less brutal and democratic Bangladesh is determined by the practicality of the calls for positioned by the revolutionaries and the dexterity of the brand new administration, concerning not solely managing them but additionally addressing pressures from exterior forces.
The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially replicate Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
