Thiruvananthapuram, India – On a sweltering April afternoon, India’s junior Data Know-how Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar emerged from his air-conditioned SUV exterior a outstanding Hindu temple in Thiruvananthapuram, the capital of the southern Indian state of Kerala.
Sporting a conventional dhoti and a silk scarf draped over his shoulders, he stood reverently, his palms folded, earlier than the idol of the Pazhavangadi Ganapathy Temple, the elephant-headed god who’s believed to be the remover of obstacles, earlier than continuing to greet a crowd of about 500 folks ready for him.
Chandrasekhar, an prosperous entrepreneur-turned-politician, is contesting the Thiruvananthapuram parliamentary seat in India’s mammoth common election, which began on April 19. All of the 20 constituencies in Kerala will vote on Friday, April 26 – the second section of the seven-stage election.
Given Kerala’s political panorama and historical past, the 59-year-old candidate fielded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Get together (BJP) may want divine intervention to safe a win.
‘Double-digit seats’
Kerala is the one considered one of India’s main states the place the BJP has by no means received a nationwide seat, although it has seen a gentle rise in its voter assist, from 1.75 % in 1984 to 13 % in 2019.
Throughout an election rally in February, Modi set larger ambitions for the celebration. “Within the 2019 Lok Sabha [lower house of parliament] election, Kerala gave a two-digit vote share to the BJP. This time, the celebration would win double-digit seats from Kerala,” he mentioned.
There’s little proof to recommend such broad assist for the BJP in a state dominated by two coalitions for many years – the United Democratic Entrance (UDF), headed by the Congress Get together, and the communist-led Left Democratic Entrance (LDF). In 2019, the UDF received 19 of 20 seats, with the LDF profitable one. In 2014, the UDF bagged 12, whereas the remaining eight went to the LDF. Within the state, the LDF is presently in energy.
Although the UDF and the LDF have been exchanging heated barbs in the course of the present marketing campaign, and are contesting one another in Kerala, they’re nationally each members of the Indian Nationwide Improvement Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), the opposition bloc that goals to cease Modi from profitable a 3rd straight time period. In Kerala, opinion polls point out the BJP may face a wipeout, with anti-BJP events profitable all of its 20 seats.
However the BJP is betting on Chandrasekhar and Thiruvananthapuram to defy these odds and break new floor in Kerala – for lengthy a state that has set a benchmark for growth indices together with literacy in India.
For the previous two nationwide elections, the BJP has come second in Thiruvananthapuram, garnering greater than 30 % of the vote share, behind solely the Congress, which leads the nationwide INDIA alliance.
Chandrasekhar’s chief opponent is incumbent Shashi Tharoor of Congress. A former Undersecretary Basic on the United Nations and a extensively regarded creator, Tharoor, 68, is searching for re-election from the constituency for a fourth consecutive time period.
Then there may be Panniyan Raveendran of the Communist Get together of India, a constant political pressure in Thiruvananthapuram, the place the celebration has received 4 occasions and completed second on six different events previously 13 elections since 1977. Raveendran had received the seat in 2005.
‘I stand by Modi’
Adorned with dazzling lights and highly effective audio system, Chandrasekhar’s convoy is inconceivable to disregard because it strikes across the constituency. In distinction, spending by Tharoor and Raveendran seems to be muted.
Chandrasekhar is a millionaire businessman who constructed his fortune by means of ventures in Bengaluru, India’s data expertise hub and the capital of the neighbouring state of Karnataka. He’s the founding father of Jupiter Capital, an fairness and debt funding agency.
As of 2023, Jupiter Capital owned the bulk stake in 51 corporations spanning media, expertise, aerospace, infrastructure, leisure and hospitality sectors and minority shares in three others. 5 of these corporations are primarily based within the tax havens of Mauritius and Luxembourg, in response to Jupiter Capital’s filings with the Ministry of Company Affairs.
Nonetheless, Chandrasekhar’s wealth has come underneath new scrutiny after the Congress questioned his election affidavit that mentioned he had a taxable revenue of simply 680 rupees ($8). The BJP minister clarified that his enterprise suffered losses in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic however his opponents have accused him of concealing his actual revenue. India’s Election Fee has ordered the tax authorities to analyze the matter after the Congress lodged a proper criticism.
Chandrasekhar turned down a request for an interview from this correspondent.
Controversy apart, Chandrasekhar’s marketing campaign appears to be hanging a chord, at the least amongst some within the Hindu neighborhood, which varieties 62 % of the voters in Thiruvananthapuram, with Christians and Muslims forming 28 % and 10 % respectively.
Ramadas Rajendran, a 36-year-old medical consultant, belongs to Kerala’s privileged Nair neighborhood. “I might not be affiliated with the BJP however I stand by Modi,” he informed Al Jazeera at his residence within the metropolis’s middle-class Sreekaryam neighbourhood, expressing optimism a couple of BJP triumph.
“By nominating his minister for this constituency, Modi has assured us of getting a consultant dedicated to the world’s progress,” he added.
However a visit to predominantly Christian and Muslim fishing villages only some kilometres west of Sreekaryam factors to the challenges that Chandrashekhar and the BJP face.
“Tharoor is a charming orator and successfully articulates our considerations in parliament. We want somebody of his calibre to problem Modi’s Hindutva [Hindu supremacist] agenda,” 50-year-old fisherman Rasheed Khan informed Al Jazeera within the village of Beemapally.
Within the neighbouring Poonthura fishing village with a big Christian neighborhood, an analogous sentiment prevailed.
“We’re decided to stop Modi’s victory. He has remained silent as Christian church buildings had been vandalised in Manipur by Hindu teams,” mentioned 36-year-old Lawrence Bernard, referring to the northeastern state the place ethnic violence – partly blamed on the BJP – has been occurring for practically a 12 months.
“What might be our neighborhood’s destiny if he [Modi] returns to energy?” requested Bernard.
In actual fact, the Manipur violence is a serious marketing campaign difficulty in Kerala, with each the Congress and the communists attacking Modi and his BJP for failing to cease the killing of greater than 260 folks – most of them tribal Christians – and for the displacement of hundreds of others.
Kerala’s ‘distinctive’ demography
Kerala’s distinctive demographic make-up is a key cause why the BJP’s enhance in voting share has to date not translated into seats nationally.
Hindus represent 55 % of the state’s inhabitants, adopted by Muslims at 27 % and Christians at 18 %. Collectively, the 2 minority teams make up practically half – 45 % – of the inhabitants, making them formidable forces in elections. The dearth of belief among the many minorities in the direction of the BJP, which champions a Hindu majoritarian agenda, makes it tough for the celebration to achieve traction in Kerala.
“Although the BJP’s vote share has been growing steadily, it can not win even a single parliament seat due to demography,” Ok M Sajad Ibrahim, a professor of political science at Kerala College, informed Al Jazeera.
The BJP has historically struggled to even win the Hindu vote within the state. In 2019, as an illustration, each the Nairs and the traditionally marginalised Ezhava – the most important Hindu group within the state – had been cut up 3 ways between the UDF, the LDF and the BJP. Simply 2 % of the spiritual minorities voted for Modi’s celebration within the final election.
C P John, the chief of the Communist Marxist Get together (CMP), a breakaway from the Communist Get together of India (Marxist), mentioned one of many causes for the BJP’s failure in Kerala is its “non-familiarity with the distinctive nature” of Kerala’s coalition politics, the place even smaller events have important affect. Each the UDF and the LDF accommodate smaller events, no matter their measurement.
“Nonetheless, the BJP’s failure to type alliances has made it a winless unit,” John informed Al Jazeera.
Since 2015, the BJP has been in alliance with Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), an outfit launched by Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam, a strong Ezhava organisation.
“However the BDJS doesn’t have the character of a correct political outfit. Although the BJP’s vote share elevated due to the BDJS, a majority of Ezhava votes nonetheless go to both the UDF or the LDF,” mentioned John.
‘BJP fails to grasp Kerala’
The BJP has additionally used different methods through the years to make a mark within the southern state.
One notable experiment occurred in 1991 when the BJP made a secret settlement with the Congress and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) – a Muslim group – to contest towards the LDF in a single meeting seat and one parliamentary constituency, in response to the memoirs of two former BJP state presidents, Ok G Marar and O Rajagopal.
Though each the BJP candidates misplaced, the celebration says the deal helped it acquire acceptance as a mainstream political entity in Kerala.
The BJP’s critics say the celebration is now attempting to foster discord between the Christians and the Muslims and disrupt the consolidation of anti-BJP votes amongst them. They accuse the BJP of pushing the thought of so-called “love jihad” – a conspiracy idea that alleges that Muslim males lure Hindu and Christian girls into marriages and coerce them into changing to Islam.
A current Bollywood movie, Kerala Story, made related claims – that quite a few girls from Kerala had been forcibly transformed to Islam and despatched to battle for the ISIL (ISIS) group within the Center East. The movie was praised by Modi, whereas the BJP organised its exhibiting throughout the nation.
Within the run-up to the election, some Catholic Church buildings within the state screened the movie for his or her congregation and Sunday college college students. The allegations made within the movie have been extensively debunked by native communities and impartial specialists.
C Sadanandan, a BJP chief in Kerala, defended the celebration’s deal with “love jihad”, saying that the Christians in Kerala are “conscious of the repercussions of varied types of Islamic Jihad”.
“Extra Christians in Kerala are becoming a member of palms with the BJP to battle all types of jihad. However the communists and the Congress are nonetheless supporting the jihadi components,” he informed Al Jazeera.
Predicting the BJP will win at the least three constituencies in Kerala, he mentioned: “Up to now, the LDF and the UDF thwarted our profitable probabilities by forming unholy alliances with the assist of Islamic fundamentalists. It would change this time.”
Tharoor of the Congress, nevertheless, mentioned that Kerala is not going to see the sort of spiritual fissures seen in different elements of India because the BJP got here to energy in 2014.
“The BJP fails to grasp Kerala, its historical past and its folks. Their politics, which demonises Muslims and Christians, might have discovered traction in northern India, however it’ll solely backfire within the south, significantly in Kerala,” the place Muslims and Christians have coexisted for greater than a millennium, he mentioned.
“Minorities are equal stakeholders in Kerala’s society, a truth the BJP fails to know.”
