The 2024 season opened up with a number of the worst passing performances we’ve ever seen throughout the league. Via the Sunday slate of video games, there have solely been 33 passing touchdowns via Week 1, which might be the bottom whole the NFL has seen during the last 5 years, per thirty third Workforce’s Steve Palazzolo:
Week 1 NFL passing touchdowns
2019 : 61
2020: 52
2021: 61
2022: 51
2023: 37
2024: 33**Pending MNF
— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) September 9, 2024
It simply seems like passing has turn out to be much less environment friendly, with operating the ball taking the early lead in effectivity via the primary week of the NFL season:
In response to the NFL turning into extra pass-heavy lately, many have commented that ultimately we might attain a degree the place it turned extra environment friendly to run than go— and the pendulum would swing the opposite method.
My buddies, we could also be quickly approaching that time. pic.twitter.com/Rxm5XIJnGl
— Jake Grossman (@jakegrossman0) September 9, 2024
So, what occurred right here? What triggered passing within the NFL to take such a serious slide within the first week of the season?
Defenses are successful the chess match
Soccer technique may be seen rather a lot like chess, with strikes and countermoves being made with the gamers because the queens and rooks on the chessboard. To date, defenses are successful this match. With the continued utilization of two-high shells, it negates the explosive downfield passing, forcing groups to make use of the run sport or fast beneath sport. We’re seeing rather a lot much less passing general, with groups opting to run that rattling ball with a view to drive groups out of these gentle bins and two-high shells.
Move % in Week 1 over the previous 6 seasons:
2024: 60.3%
2023: 62.1%
2022: 63.2%
2021: 63.9%
2020: 61.2%
2019: 63.8%I believe it’s because we’ve formally left the QB golden age & defenses are taking part in extra conservatively (baiting extra runs/quick passes) https://t.co/bwmEB8T2hm
— CoachSwami (@Moonlightswami) September 9, 2024
Due to how conservative defenses are calling the sport, it’s forcing offenses to both eat their greens through the fast sport or make explosives through operating the soccer. Offenses have to have the ability to throw the subsequent punch.
Lack of preseason reps
I do know, I do know. “Preseason isn’t necessary! The joint practices through the week are what issues!” Whereas I partially agree with you, getting as much as sport velocity isn’t one thing that simply may be completed right away.
If you concentrate on all of the groups that performed nicely on this first week, most of their starters performed within the preseason. Kansas Metropolis performed their starters for at the very least the primary couple of drives in all three video games. Houston performed their guys rather a lot, and so they all appeared like they didn’t miss a step. Whereas it’s not important that your starters get all of the preseason reps, joint practices can solely accomplish that a lot. A whole lot of groups (cough cough, Cincinnati) use Week 1 as principally the fourth preseason sport, and it results in performances like theirs. Not taking part in in any respect within the preseason then anticipating to return out and play instantly nicely is a nasty course of, and we’re seeing the fruits of that.
Enjoying QB within the NFL is actually f****** exhausting
This goes again into the primary level, and it might simply stand by itself. Enjoying QB within the NFL is as exhausting because it’s ever been, due to how fluid all the pieces is. Simulated pressures are all the craze; what you see pre-snap isn’t going to be the identical factor post-snap. It stresses the thoughts of sign callers who need to diagnose the play, get to the appropriate man all in about three seconds as a result of should you don’t you’re getting crushed by a 270 pound defensive linemen. Defenses are making it exhausting on the QB by throwing all the pieces and the kitchen sink at them, whereas offenses ask extra of the QB in accessing center of the sphere targets and transferring beneath defenders.
Total, this needs to be the largest takeaway. Enjoying QB within the NFL is difficult, and offenses ought to make it simpler on them by operating that rattling ball.
