Olympics’ closing 4 males’s basketball groups, ranked by gold medal possibilities in Paris

Twelve groups entered the boys’s basketball event on the 2024 Paris Olympics. Now solely 4 stay. The USA, Germany, France, and Serbia superior to the semifinals on Tuesday in an exciting day of motion that included huge upsets and historic comebacks. This event — rightfully billed as essentially the most gifted within the historical past of the Olympics — has lived as much as each ounce of hype to date, and the end guarantees to be the very best half but.

We ranked Canada because the second-best crew within the discipline forward of the quarterfinals. Whoops. As an alternative, France benched Rudy Gobert and blitzed the Canadians with a punishing inside scoring assault. Elsewhere, Serbia worn out the largest deficit in Olympics historical past to stun Australia, and the US and Germany took care of enterprise.

Earlier than the semifinals tip off on Thursday, right here’s how we’d rank the 4 groups remaining by their probabilities of capturing the gold medal.

4. Serbia

Serbia’s Olympic dream was on life assist when Australia raced out to a 24-point lead within the quarterfinals. That’s when Nikola Jokic reminded the group in Paris that he’s the very best participant on this planet. Jokic was making profitable performs everywhere in the ground as Serbia finally wrestled away the lead within the third quarter, displaying off his elite inside scorer, passing, and rebounding, whereas additionally using the FIBA guidelines for one key block off the rim. Serbia hasn’t performed via Jokic (who wasn’t a member of final yr’s World Cup crew) as a lot as you may anticipate, however the crew nonetheless is aware of the place to go along with the ball when the sport is on the road. For as spectacular as Serbia’s comeback was, it’s arduous to see their pathway to a win over the USA until their guards actually go off. Vasilije Micic and Bogdan Bogdanovic each began to unlock their offense in opposition to Greece, however doing it vs. Jrue Vacation, Derrick White, and the remainder of the U.S. protection is a a lot harder process. It’s wild to assume that Serbia can have the very best participant on the ground within the matchup, however Crew USA has the following 12 greatest gamers. Serbia can hold it shut if it performs its greatest sport, however the U.S. needs to be an excessive amount of.

Photograph by Tom Weller/VOIGT/GettyImages

3. France

Head coach Vincent Collet benched Rudy Gobert and Evan Fournier within the quarterfinals in opposition to Canada, and the lineup change gave France what it wanted to drag off the large upset. The French went small with Isaïa Cordinier and Guerschon Yabusele attacking a weak Canadian entrance court docket, permitting them to someway win a sport the place Gobert and Nic Batum went scoreless, and Victor Wembanyama shot solely 2-for-10 from the sphere. France most likely received’t have the ability to follow a small ball lineup in opposition to a German crew with tons of beef within the center (Daniel Theis, Johannes Voigtmann, and Mo Wagner), nevertheless it must proceed discovering methods to create spacing and hold the ball transferring. France’s poor guard play will stay to be a difficulty in any matchup, however Fournier getting scorching off the bench was a development it want to see proceed. The trail to the French punching their ticket to the gold medal sport begins with Wembanyama bouncing again offensively, and sure wants to incorporate Gobert getting again on the ground and fortifying the paint. If France can beat Canada, you shouldn’t low cost the house crew’s possibilities in opposition to anybody.

Photograph by Gregory Shamus/Getty Photographs

2. Germany

Germany was on the ropes early in opposition to Greece, however this German crew is just too robust and too organized to exit unhappy within the quarterfinals in opposition to a significant underdog. Germany solid its comeback behind star Franz Wagner’s perimeter creation potential, and a lockdown protection that held Greece to 27 second half factors. Whereas he’s nonetheless ice chilly as a three-point shooter, Wagner stays probably the most devastating scorers left on this discipline, sufficiently big to energy his manner deep into the paint, and expert sufficient to complete. Dennis Schröder continues to be the ‘lightning’ that enhances Wagner’s ‘thunder’ offensively. The veteran guard is solely manner too fast for France’s shaky guard rotation. That is turning into a golden period for German basketball with a 2023 World Cup championship to their identify and now their first ever berth within the Olympic semifinals. The Germans play arduous and play collectively. They’ve two nice creation choices within the youthful Wagner brother and Schröder, they usually have loads of dimension down low. Even in opposition to a hostile French surroundings, Germany deserves to be the favourite to play for gold.

Photograph by Gregory Shamus/Getty Photographs

1. United States

Brazil was by no means going to check the US, and certainly it didn’t. The U.S. turned their quarterfinal matchup right into a rout by the second quarter with Steve Kerr’s crew once more flexing its beautiful mixture of depth and firepower. The very best quality of this USA crew is it may nonetheless thrive even when its greatest stars have an off-night. Six American gamers reached double-figures in scoring in opposition to Brazil, and a balanced offensive assault ought to proceed as the established order for a bunch that has been very keen to make sacrifices and share the ball. The scary factor for the remainder of the world is that Crew USA appears this good with out Stephen Curry hitting many photographs from deep. Serbia will nonetheless be an enormous check for the U.S. It has the very best participant on the ground, and it performs with a togetherness that helps encourage upsets. That is the kind of crew that would give the USA hassle on paper, however proper now Kerr’s squad is taking part in at such a excessive stage that it’s troublesome to doubt them. Crew USA has received seven of the final eight gold medals in males’s basketball, they usually’re two wins away from including one other one. In the meanwhile, it doesn’t seem like anybody can cease them.