Like clockwork, every NFL offseason appears to see a brand new highest-paid quarterback within the league — typically reflecting a workforce locking up their starter whereas he’s on a rookie contract.
Earlier this month, it was Jacksonville Jaguars passer Trevor Lawrence’s flip to reset the market. The primary collection of the 2021 draft signed a monster extension price $55 million per season, tying him with Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals for the place’s highest common annual worth (AAV).
One other inevitability of the quarterback market is that when a brand new profitable deal is introduced, focus will circle again to Patrick Mahomes’ comparatively low AAV.
The league’s largest star signed a 10-year pact for $450 million in 2020. 4 years later, an exponentially rising quarterback market has seen Mahomes’ $45 million per season fall to solely the ninth-highest within the league.
Be nicely conscious, nonetheless, Mahomes isn’t giving the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs a large hometown low cost. His standing because the ninth-highest paid quarterback within the league is a fantasy that solely exists for accounting functions.
After Burrow signed his extension final offseason, the Chiefs did a significant adjustment to Mahomes’ decade-long deal. Whereas the unique contract is technically nonetheless in impact, cash scheduled to be earned after 2027 was moved ahead to pay Mahomes on common $52.7 million for the 2023-27 seasons.
In return for successfully giving out a increase lower than three years right into a 10-year contract, the Chiefs gained priceless flexibility in how the cash is charged for wage cap functions. Whereas the deal is undoubtedly “team-friendly,” that overused time period shouldn’t be confused with the precise compensation being a monetary discount.
Most who comply with NFL contracts know that the reported common per 12 months is commonly a meaningless quantity, and the true measure lies in assured cash. With the restructure, Mahomes set a document with $210 million assured over a four-year interval.
With Trevor Lawrence having signed his new deal, the best paid QBs for the 2024-27 seasons on a money move foundation at the moment are:
Mahomes $215.6M
Burrow $213.9M
Goff $193.6M
Hurts $184M
Watson $184M
Herbert $182.6M
Cousins $180M
Jackson $179.2M
Lawrence $155.5M…— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) June 20, 2024
On first look, Mahomes lags nicely behind his friends in common wage. The obvious travesty, nonetheless, solely exists as a technicality as he can nonetheless anticipate to earn more money than his friends through the course of their seemingly extra profitable contracts.
However Mahomes remains to be signed by 2031, proper? One of the best reply to that query could be “It’s sophisticated.”
The restructure stored the unique contract in place, that means he technically is signed to the unique size. Nonetheless, there are two key causes Mahomes’ deal successfully now solely exists by 2027.
The face of the league gained robust leverage over the workforce with cap construction over the approaching seasons. 2025 will start a trio of years when Mahomes is at the moment slated to rely for greater than $60 million of the Chiefs’ wage cap. Kansas Metropolis will quickly must additionally flip their consideration to some gifted younger gamers who’ve helped ship back-to-back championships — similar to cornerback Trent McDuffie.
Sooner or later — probably earlier than dealing with a $66.3 million cost to a single participant in 2025 — Chiefs basic supervisor Brett Veach will negotiate a very new contract along with his quarterback. The Chiefs can not afford to trip Mahomes’ contract as is and proceed fielding a championship-caliber roster.
Even when possession ghoulishly decides Kansas Metropolis has had sufficient playoff success and adopts an austerity method to outlive the cap disaster, Mahomes’ present deal has the same shelf life.
The $45 million AAV continuously cited to justify the concept he’s underpaid will depend on a near-impossible state of affairs taking place. In 2027, Mahomes is scheduled to earn $52.9 million in precise cash. 2028 is the primary 12 months that cash was “borrowed” from to fund the 2023 restructure. In that 12 months, he’s at the moment scheduled to solely earn $27.2 million in precise compensation.
Does anybody really imagine the league’s most recognizable participant — after what’s going to by then have been a decade of all however printing cash for the NFL — goes to simply accept a $25 million pay minimize due to a contract that may then be seven years outdated?
Mahomes ought to have a brand new record-setting deal lengthy earlier than that may turn into a difficulty. On his subsequent contract, anticipate an unprecedented construction, as his first extension had. Don’t be shocked if it covers one other 10-year interval to maximise home windows to restructure giant salaries and to unfold out cap hits.
Anticipate to listen to the identical group of pundits lament that Mahomes is permitting the Chiefs to underpay him, particularly if he doesn’t hit market-topping thresholds for the imaginary worth that’s AAV.
And know that the long run Professional Soccer Corridor of Fame choice does loads of charity work, however Kansas Metropolis’s entrance workplace isn’t a recipient. The wage particulars could be unconventional for the rest of his profession — however his true earnings will mirror his standing within the sport from right here on.
