“Ebrahim Raisi was elected in a wholly uncompetitive election in 2021 when the outcomes had been preordained,” mentioned Arash Azizi, a author and historian who focuses on Iran. “The outcomes will not be preordained this time.”
Iran’s political system means the president has restricted energy. The Islamic republic’s supreme chief — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — maintains direct or oblique management of all branches of presidency, in addition to of the navy and the media. Nonetheless, the following president may have a major influence on every day life, together with spiritual necessities and costume restrictions — consequential in a rustic just lately rocked by protests demanding freedom for ladies within the theocracy.
Votes might be tallied as quickly as Sunday. However specialists suppose it’s probably that not one of the contenders will win a easy majority, during which case Iranians will take to the polls as soon as extra in July for a runoff election between the 2 front-runners.
People looking for election to Iran’s presidency or parliament should obtain approval from the Guardian Council, which vets candidates to make sure they adhere to the rules of the Islamic republic. In observe, all 12 members of the council — six clerics and 6 jurists — are instantly or not directly appointed by Khamenei.
Eighty candidates entered the race to be president. The council authorised six, all them males. Two of these six dropped out simply days earlier than the election, a part of an effort by hard-liners to coalesce round a conservative candidate.
Ghalibaf, 62, has served as speaker of parliament since 2020 and was mayor of Tehran from 2005 to 2017. He boasts an intensive navy historical past — together with three years as commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ air pressure — and maintains shut ties to the IRGC, a robust political pressure inside the Islamic republic. A conservative, Ghalibaf is understood for his function in harsh crackdowns on pupil protesters in Iran whereas serving as an IRGC basic and later as police chief.
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Although he served because the nation’s nuclear negotiator, Jalili is a critic of worldwide negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Jalili, 58, is a member of the Expediency Discernment Council, which was initially set as much as resolve conflicts between parliament and the Guardian Council however serves in observe as an advisory physique to Khamenei. If elected, Jalili is predicted to proceed the tough crackdown on anti-government protesters and on Iranian ladies accused of violating the nation’s necessary hijab guidelines.
Described by analysts as the only real reformist within the race, Pezeshkian is a coronary heart surgeon who has based mostly his marketing campaign round Iranian ladies, youths and ethnic minorities. He has taken the alternative nuclear platform from Jalili, as a substitute campaigning on the aim of reopening nuclear talks with the West. Pezeshkian, 69, served as vice chairman of Iran’s parliament from 2016 to 2020, strongly supported the 2015 nuclear deal and challenged the official authorities narrative concerning the 2022 loss of life of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian girl who died in police custody after being detained for allegedly not sporting her hijab.
Pourmohammadi is the one cleric within the race. A conservative, Pourmohammadi, 64, beforehand served as inside minister below President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and later as justice minister below President Hassan Rouhani. Pourmohammadi, like Raisi, performed a number one function within the 1988 executions of 1000’s of political prisoners held in Iranian jails.
Two of the conservative candidates authorised by the Guardian Council — Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, 58, and Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, 53, who served as one in all Raisi’s vice presidents — dropped out on Thursday, narrowing the election to a four-way race with simply at some point till voting begins.
The 74 candidates whom the Guardian Council initially disqualified embody authorities officers and lawmakers — even a former president — in addition to seven ladies.
“Solely those that settle for the basics of this deeply undemocratic system of the Islamic republic have ever been allowed to run,” Azizi mentioned.
If Iranians end up to vote, it may assist the only real reformist candidate
Whereas Pezeshkian is taken into account the only real reformist within the now four-candidate lineup, some view him as a possible front-runner. It’s unclear how two candidates’ withdrawal will have an effect on the race, which specialists broadly interpret as a three-way contest amongst Jalili, Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian.
“It actually relies on the voter turnout,” mentioned Michelle Grisé, a senior coverage researcher at Rand. “Permitting Pezeshkian to run might be seen as an try to extend voter turnout, however we’ll see whether or not he’ll reach interesting to an citizens that’s overwhelmingly disillusioned at this level.”
Lower than half of the citizens voted in the newest presidential election in 2021, and the March parliamentary elections had traditionally low turnout, in response to Grisé.
However the 2021 election was largely thought-about to be preordained in favor of Raisi, prompting many Iranians — particularly these pissed off by the ayatollah’s conservative regime — to boycott voting altogether.
“The query is, ‘Do Iran’s moderates end up in favor of Pezeshkian, or do they not end up in any respect?’” defined Heather Williams, additionally a senior coverage researcher at Rand. The regime desires “turnout, although they might fairly not get who the turnout goes to return out for,” she mentioned.
The election is being held early after the sudden loss of life of the final president
Iran was slated to carry its subsequent presidential election in 2025, however the sudden loss of life of Raisi moved the election up by a yr. Raisi died in a helicopter crash on Might 19 at age 63. In keeping with the Islamic republic’s structure, a particular election have to be held inside 50 days.
Elected in 2021, Raisi was broadly considered the victor of a rigged race, an effort by Khamenei to uphold his conservative regime. Some analysts consider Raisi was the ayatollah’s desired successor as supreme chief.
Within the wake of Amini’s loss of life in 2022, mass protests calling for the theocracy’s dissolution broke out in Iran and around the globe. Raisi oversaw a safety crackdown throughout which greater than 500 folks had been killed, in response to a tally from the nongovernmental group Iran Human Rights. Iran later introduced it had pardoned greater than 22,000 who had been arrested.
Raisi’s loss of life got here at a time of accelerating instability and violence within the Center East. The struggle in Gaza has sparked a surge within the always simmering tensions between Iran and Israel, as violence rises on Lebanon’s southern border, within the Crimson Sea and in Syria and Iraq, The Submit reported final month. In April, Raisi oversaw the biggest Iranian assault in opposition to Israel in retaliation for a lethal Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria.
Most political energy in Iran is held by the supreme chief
Constitutionally, the president ranks second to the supreme chief, who holds many of the energy and is “the last word decision-making authority” on nationwide safety and protection, in response to Grisé. The ayatollah has in recent times “successfully encroached” on the president’s purview, Azizi mentioned, and seized extra energy.
Nonetheless, as head of presidency, the president holds vital duties over components of every day life in Iran, together with overseeing the nationwide funds and signing laws and treaties.
Crucially, the president of the Islamic republic influences how strict its morality police are in implementing the theocracy’s spiritual codes and costume restrictions, in addition to the extent of freedom that Iran’s media is allowed to exert.
“Then there are additionally some day-to-day freedoms that possibly we don’t take into consideration as a lot, like who’s allowed to attend sporting occasions or how many individuals are allowed to collect in public, or if ladies are allowed to bounce publicly,” Williams mentioned.
