UFC 302 paths to victory: How can Dustin Poirier upset Islam Makhachev and end his story?

UFC 302 takes place this Saturday in Newark, NJ, headlined by a light-weight title combat between champion Islam Makhachev and residing legend Dustin Poirier. Makhachev is one win away from tying the light-weight report for title defenses, whereas Poirier has one ultimate probability to say the one factor that’s eluded him throughout his MMA profession: an undisputed UFC title. Who will win and the way will every fighter go about their enterprise on Saturday? Let’s dive in.

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photos

Paths to Victory for Islam Makhachev at UFC 302

At this level, there’s not a lot to say about Makhachev that hasn’t already been stated. Nonetheless solely 32 years outdated, Makhachev is the highest pound-for-pound fighter within the sport and already a top-five all-time light-weight. When it’s all stated and achieved, there’s a great probability he goes down because the divisional GOAT, and a win over Poirier strikes him nearer to that endgame. However how will he do it? It looks like we already know.

Talking about Poirier forward of the combat, Makhachev was sincere about the truth that his buddy and teammate Khabib Nurmagomedov beat Poirier already, and that they’ve the same gameplan for this combat. And “beat” is placing it calmly. Although Poirier had some moments towards Nurmagomedov, the reality is that Khabib demolished him together with his vastly superior grappling expertise. Makhachev seems poised to do the identical factor.

Poirier’s weak point has at all times been his grappling. Whereas he’s a BJJ black belt and a great grappler by most requirements, he’s not a robust positional grappler and he’s far too keen to sacrifice defensive standing un pursuit of low-percentage submission (the person merely wouldn’t cease leaping guillotines towards Benoit Saint Denis regardless of his coaches telling him to not). That’s an enormous downside towards a management grappler pretty much as good as Makhachev. Islam repeatedly acquired Alexander Volkanovski into dangerous positions the place the featherweight champion might do nothing, and he can do the identical to Poirier. Furthermore, Poirier additionally tends to surrender his again throughout transitions, and that’s one thing Makhachev could make him pay for.

The trick for Makhachev can be how he goes about getting the takedowns, and happily, there’s a playbook for that as properly. Makhachev is an distinctive wrestler and whereas he’s not pretty much as good of a shot-wrestler as Khabib was, he’s even higher within the clinch, each with knees and journeys. Poirier had some success preventing the palms and denying Khabib’s preliminary takedown makes an attempt after they fought, however had no reply for the journeys and chain wrestling that adopted. Islam can do precisely the identical to get this combat to the bottom the place he’s massively favored, if Poirier doesn’t simply soar a guillotine on him and quit the place on his personal.

With regards to the standup, Makhachev is pretty low quantity together with his hanging, however he’s an distinctive defensive fighter, with good kicks and nice timing on his rear hand. So long as he stays aware of Poirier’s lead proper hook (arguably his finest punch and coincidentally the identical punch that Adriano Martins knocked Makhachev out with in his lone loss) then he needs to be high-quality.

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photos

Paths to victory for Dustin Poirier at UFC 302

Poirier’s profession turnaround has been one of the fulfilling journeys to observe in MMA. Going from a hard-punching, reckless featherweight to one of the technically and defensively spectacular lightweights on this planet is not any small feat. It’s how Poirier received an interim title and cemented himself as a future Corridor of Famer. And he’ll want each little bit of that on Saturday, plus heaps of excellent fortune.

Whereas Makhachev is commonly in comparison with Nurmagomedov alongside the strains of “Khabib however with higher hanging” that comparability misses the mark. Makhachev is a “higher” striker in a vacuum however actually his recreation is a mirror of Khabib’s: he’s defensively tight however with low quantity, he’s a menace within the clinch, and most significantly, he permits fights come to him (he’s additionally not almost as imply as Khabib nor fairly as athletic however that’s probably not the purpose). Nurmagomedov’s recreation was constructed solely in service to his grappling. Makhachev’s will not be. Makhachev’s recreation is outlined by being an amazing grappler, however he’s content material to maneuver to that part inside the rhythm of the combat. It’s easy one choice for Makhachev, not the one choice. And that could be Poirier’s window for achievement.

Poirier’s solely lifelike path to victory is knocking Makhachev out. We all know that he might be knocked out and we all know that Poirier actually is extra artful and hits tougher than Adriano Martins. We additionally know that Makhachev and his camp are enamored together with his hanging skill. If Makhachev desires to begin brawling, that’s good for Poirier. So draw him right into a brawl.

The one time Makhachev has ever seemed susceptible (aside from the Martins knockout) was his first combat with Alexander Volkanovski, the place Volk merely competed as arduous as he might in all phases. As a result of Makhachev isn’t Khabib, when he will get a fighter down, it’s not instantly curtains by way of hellish elbows and ground-and-pound. Makhachev is happier to manage, which means you may make him work there. The extra you make him work, the extra drained he will get, which means takedowns don’t come as simple, which means he’ll begin hanging extra as a result of he’s not somebody to drive the difficulty. If Poirier can take Makhachev out of his consolation zone early, because the combat drags on it’s going to transfer into territory that Poirier can excel in.

In service of that finish, Poirier has to remain within the middle of the cage and continually put palms on Makhachev. Jabs and uppercuts for days, elbows when Makhachev steps inside, and fixed circling. Put quantity on Makhachev and see what finds the chin. Perhaps nothing, and perhaps you lose, but it surely’s higher to go down swinging than leaping a guillotine with no probability of success.

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That is virtually actually Poirier’s ultimate probability at undisputed UFC gold. He’s 35 years outdated and, frankly, doesn’t actually deserve this title shot. Within the well-known phrases of Jimmy McGinty, “there is no such thing as a tomorrow for you, and that makes you all very harmful folks!” Poirier goes to let all of it hang around on Saturday. Will it’s sufficient? We’ll see.

Prediction

I’m an unapologetic Islam Makhachev fan however each fiber of my being desires to select Dustin Poirier to tug off the upset. He’s one of many only a few folks which might be universally beloved in MMA and him profitable a title at this stage of his profession, when he was really written off, would immediately rank as one of many best moments in MMA historical past.

However this ain’t a Disney film. There are not any glad endings in sight. Simply the cruel realities of the MMA world and its gods.

Makhachev is just too defensively sound on the ft, too good on the bottom, and too sensible to provide Poirier any probability on this combat. He’s the inheritor obvious to one of the best fighter I’ve ever seen, and whereas I don’t suppose Makhachev is sort of what Khabib was, he’s 95 p.c of the way in which there, which nonetheless makes him one of the best fighter on this planet immediately. Poirier is nice, however Islam is one of the best.

Islam Makhachev def. Dustin Poirier by way of submission (rear-naked choke) — Spherical 3, 1:36