Monaco Grand Prix qualifying: Will this be Charles Leclerc’s day?

Welcome to qualifying day on the Monaco Grand Prix.

On Method 1’s greatest stage, qualifying day is all the pieces.

Which will bode properly for hometown hero Charles Leclerc, who topped the timing sheets in Friday’s second observe session. If historical past holds, that seemingly means a pole place for Leclerc, because the final 5 editions of the Monaco Grand Prix have seen the motive force atop the timing sheets in FP2 go on to seize pole place.

Even scarier for the remainder of the sphere?

Leclerc thinks he can discover much more time on the Monte Carlo streets.

“I feel there’s extra tempo in me simply placing all the pieces collectively,” mentioned Leclerc following Friday’s two observe periods. “In case you take a look at my three sectors, there was fairly a little bit of lap time in them once you put all of it collectively, in order that would be the predominant focus for tomorrow. However let’s say efficiency and feeling is there.”

Leclerc’s struggles in his hometown race are properly documented, because the Monégasque driver has but to style victory at house at any stage of racing. In actual fact, Leclerc is amongst these 5 earlier drivers who’ve taken pole place after topping the timing sheets in FP2, as he did simply that within the 2021 Monaco Grand Prix. Leclerc was on provisional pole in Q3 that 12 months, and a late crash by the Ferrari driver in that third session froze the sphere, clinching pole place for the hometown hero.

However the injury was sufficient that his SF21 suffered a failure on the reconnaissance lap, and he didn’t begin the race.

Maybe … maybe that every one modifications for Leclerc beginning later as we speak.

Leclerc’s possibilities to interrupt his hometown curse is probably the primary storyline for qualifying day on the Monaco Grand Prix, however it isn’t the one one.

Is Crimson Bull actually on the again foot?

Suppose again to every week in the past.

The tales popping out of Imola, web site of final weekend’s Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, mirror the tales we’re at the moment listening to as we speak. Max Verstappen was annoyed with the RB20, different groups had been atop the timing sheets — every week in the past Leclerc was quickest in each FP1 and FP2 — and maybe the door was open for an additional crew to really carry the combat to Verstappen and firm in qualifying, and the race itself.

Effectively, as we have now seen so many occasions earlier than, Verstappen slammed that door shut. He took pole place after a stronger exhibiting in FP3, and went on to win the race on Sunday.

However this weekend feels a bit of completely different.

First there was Verstappen’s suggestions concerning the RB20 all through observe, which he in comparison with a kangaroo:

Then there was what the motive force mentioned following the session, when he brushed apart comparisons to final week’s struggles in Imola. “I don’t assume I even can describe what is definitely occurring. It’s simply very tough. It’s not one thing that I didn’t count on, nevertheless it’s undoubtedly on the increased finish of the worst potential end result of the weekend up to now,” mentioned Verstappen on Friday.

“Imola was utterly completely different, additionally completely different points that you may clear up with set-up,” he continued. “These form of stuff you can’t clear up with set-up.

“It’s how the automobile is made and designed, and these form of stuff you can’t change in a single day, so we’re caught with that. We’ll attempt to make it a bit of bit higher however I don’t count on any miracles,” continued Verstappen. “[Ferrari] are miles forward. I’m not even enthusiastic about that for tomorrow, I simply need to try to clear up the problems that we have now, try to make it a bit of bit extra driveable, after which we’ll see the place we find yourself.”

F1 followers and analysts alike have heard this story earlier than. In spite of everything, when sharing a chunk summarizing his Friday struggles on Threads final week I did so with a caption that learn “I imply [Verstappen] will nonetheless in all probability put it on pole and win on Sunday however …”

And he did simply that.

Can he do this once more this week, or are Verstappen and Crimson Bull actually on the again foot heading into qualifying?

A Mercedes stunner?

One other surprising observe from Friday’s twin observe periods?

Some shocking power from Mercedes.

The crew has been speaking about progress these previous few weeks, however Friday was maybe the primary day all season when Mercedes actually appeared like they might combat for factors, however for a podium. Lewis Hamilton topped the timing sheets in FP1, with teammate George Russell coming in P3, and so they had been sturdy once more in FP2, with Hamilton up in second.

Might the Silver Arrows ship a Saturday shocker in Monaco?

“It’s been a great day, in all probability the very best we’ve had up to now this 12 months, and the automobile is feeling very optimistic. This monitor is simply superb in an F1 automobile, and I’ve been having fun with my driving as we speak – I used to be pleasantly shocked by the grip stage and the best way the automobile was responding, which made it a way more gratifying experience than the final two years,” mentioned Hamilton within the crew’s post-practice report. “Within the second session, it felt a bit much less snug, and we’ve acquired numerous work to do in a single day to enhance the lengthy runs and the entrance graining. It was a sense optimistic on the decrease gasoline, and we don’t need to lose that, however our focus now’s to enhance on the long term.”

Whereas Russell skilled some vibrations within the steering wheel throughout FP2, which hampered his efficiency, he too thought it was the most effective Fridays the crew has had this season.

“That was considered one of our greatest Fridays of the 12 months, and the automobile is feeling the very best I’ve ever had in Monaco. My session was restricted by the steering vibration – as quickly as I touched the brakes, the steering system was shaking, and on a monitor like this the place you want confidence to assault, that actually set me again,” mentioned Russell. “Each crew is creating so rapidly, and you’ll see how a lot sooner the lap occasions are this 12 months than final. The automobile is feeling good, and Lewis’s occasions confirmed the efficiency that’s in there, however Charles (Leclerc) could be very fast, and we all know as properly how rapidly issues can change. I hope we will likely be combating for the highest 5 tomorrow.”

Simulation knowledge from F1.com reveals that they very properly might be within the combat for the highest 5 tomorrow:

Much like the Crimson Bull dialogue, we have now been down this street earlier than with Mercedes. They had been sturdy within the single Friday observe on the Miami Grand Prix, for instance, earlier than fading over the remainder of the week.

However much like how issues really feel completely different at Crimson Bull when in comparison with earlier weeks, this too feels a bit of completely different relating to Mercedes. They might actually be within the combat.

Don’t forget about McLaren

Then there’s McLaren.

It was a little bit of a combined Friday for McLaren. Oscar Piastri was the second-fastest driver in FP1, with Lando Norris shut behind in P4.

The second observe session was a little bit of a unique story, with Norris up in P5 and Piastri exterior the highest ten, down in P12.

Nonetheless, the crew referred to as it a “productive” afternoon, and so they imagine they’ve the MCL38 — Ayrton Senna tribute livery and all — in a great window heading into Saturday.

“That’s Friday executed in Monaco. I’d say it’s been a fairly good day total. The tempo has appeared good nevertheless it’s very, very tight between a number of groups as we speak, so it’s tough to say the place we may web out,” mentioned Piastri within the crew’s post-practice report. “We’ve acquired some issues to take a look at and tweak in a single day, however I really feel like we’re in a great place. It’s going to be an thrilling Saturday.”

“It was a productive day of observe right here in Monaco. We labored by way of our deliberate programme with none subject. The threatened rain didn’t materialise, so we had loads of time to judge tyres, perceive setup and provides the drivers as a lot monitor time as potential,” mentioned Staff Principal Andrea Stella. “The battle on the entrance appears very fascinating: there are fairly a couple of fast groups. We’ll work arduous this night to maximise our potential, have a great qualifying session tomorrow and rating factors in a race which will nonetheless be affected by the climate.”

Who wins the Aston Martin/VCARB combat?

If the qualifying simulation knowledge holds to kind, the ultimate two spots in Q3 may come right down to a combat between Aston Martin and Visa Money App RB F1 crew.

The VCARB drivers specifically sounded assured following Friday’s periods.

“It was one other optimistic first day for us. Straight from FP1, I felt optimistic. There are nonetheless some little issues we will enhance on to extract the efficiency however that’s what observe is for. For instance, I feel we will enhance basically within the braking section as a result of we had a pair slides there and clearly with this C5 [tire], it’s very delicate,” mentioned Yuki Tsunoda within the crew’s post-practice report. “Aside from that, warmup is nice and all the pieces is optimistic, so it’s simply fine-tuning the little issues that at all times rely, particularly right here in Monaco. The final tempo is there and I’m wanting ahead to enhancing one other step tomorrow, maximising it for qualifying.”

“I’m pleased with the work we did as we speak, I feel that we have now some tempo in hand, and possibly the timesheets didn’t present the complete image, so hopefully placing on some softs tomorrow we will be combating inside the highest 10,” added Daniel Ricciardo. “I really feel like I acquired myself into a greater rhythm in the direction of the top of FP2 and was pleased with the final lap I did on the mediums. Contemplating all the pieces, I feel we’re in a great place and now it’s a matter of placing the setup collectively.”

An enchanting combat between these two groups is beginning to take kind within the Constructors’ Championship. In the mean time Aston Martin sits fifth with 44 factors, 24 factors forward of sixth-place VCARB. However the crew that has the stronger day on Saturday will likely be in good postion to both lengthen that lead — or lower into that deficit — on Sunday.