Of the state’s 42 seats, 22 have been received by the Trinamool Congress in 2019 and 18 by the BJP.
Kolkata:
West Bengal’s 42 seats make it the third-largest contributor of MPs to the Lok Sabha however what has made the state much more vital and fascinating in these Lok Sabha elections is the keenly fought contest between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP, with neither facet keen to provide any quarter.
At NDTV’s particular present ‘Battleground’ on Saturday, hosted by Editor-in-Chief Sanjay Pugalia, a panel of consultants and spokespersons from the BJP and TMC dissected each challenge that might play a job in both get together getting an higher hand and in addition shared their ideas on what drives violence throughout elections in West Bengal.
Whereas Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee – and a Presidential-style contest between them – dominated the dialogue, the 2 different details that bought quite a lot of consideration have been the Sandeshkhali controversy and the welfare push by each events.
Everybody, barring the spokespersons in fact, appeared to agree that the competition within the state goes to be a neck and neck one and the battle goes to be one in all tremendous margins.
Of the state’s 42 seats, 22 have been received by the Trinamool Congress in 2019 and the BJP had made big inroads and achieved victory in 18. Removed from resting on its laurels, the BJP has been relentless in its quest to extend its vote share since then, however the Trinamool Congress has additionally fought tooth and nail to carry on to its turf.
Pointing to how razor-thin the margins are within the state, Sanjay Kumar, Professor on the Centre for the Examine of Creating Societies (CSDS) mentioned, “West Bengal is a state the place the regional get together could be very sturdy however the BJP is placing up a fierce contest. The BJP has defeated the Congress in lots of states nevertheless it appears to be on the again foot in terms of contesting in opposition to regional events, however Bengal is an exception. I believe there’s a neck-and-neck combat. It is a battleground in the true sense.”
“There’s a contest in each seat. In 2019, the distinction in vote share between the events was simply three per cent. The distinction in seats was additionally of solely 4. If the votes swing by 2 per cent both method… if the BJP’s vote share goes up by 2-3 per cent, the TMC can lose 7-8 seats and if the other occurs and the BJP loses 4-5 per cent of votes it may be decreased to single digits,” he mentioned.
Including thus far, political strategist Amitabh Tiwari mentioned there have been 22 seats in 2019 the place the margin of victory was lower than 10% or 1 lakh votes – and these have been cut up evenly between the TMC and the BJP. “So there’s undoubtedly a ‘kaante ki takkar’ (a neck-and-neck-fight) and this has develop into a seat-by-seat contest,” he mentioned.
‘Violence Vitiates Society’
Mr Pugalia identified there’s a dichotomy within the sense that whereas Bengal is taken into account a frontrunner by way of tradition and self-respect, it’s also one of the vital violent states in terms of political violence. To this, political analyst Swapan Dasgupta mentioned the violence is a legacy of the Left, which dominated Bengal for many years and even the Trinamool was a sufferer of this when it was combating the CPM.
“A few of these rough-and-ready strategies, sadly, have develop into the brand new regular in West Bengal and I believe that is one thing that, no matter which facet you like, there must be unanimity on stopping the violence. This vitiates society,” he mentioned.
Pointing to an fascinating statistic, Mr Dasgupta mentioned no nationwide get together has ever received a majority of seats within the Lok Sabha from West Bengal since 1971. He additionally mentioned that caste, along with class – which was the CPM’s dominant narrative – has made an entry in Bengal in 2019.
How Essential Is Sandeshkhali?
Requested how vital a job the problem of Sandeshkhali – the place there have been allegations of land seize, rape and sexual harassment in opposition to a Trinamool strongman and his aides – might be within the elections, Amitabh Tiwari mentioned this relies on how a lot the BJP could make it pervade the general public consciousness.
“In 2019, Mamata Banerjee and the TMC had extra of a lead in opposition to the BJP amongst girls voters than amongst males. The lead was roughly 4 per cent amongst girls as in opposition to 2 per cent amongst males. This challenge may develop into vital as a result of help amongst girls has been a robust level of the TMC,” he mentioned.
The point out of Sandeshkhali sparked a heated debate between TMC Spokesperson Riju Dutta and BJP Spokesperson and West Bengal State Secretary Priyanka Tibrewal, particularly since Saturday was when a sting video by a non-public channel went viral by which a BJP chief purportedly says that no rapes or sexual harassment had taken place and girls have been satisfied to file such complaints on the instructions of senior get together chief Suvendu Adhikari.
The BJP chief, Gangadhar Koyal, has claimed that his voice was edited and has additionally despatched a criticism to the CBI.
Firing the primary volley, Mr Dutta mentioned the BJP has “by no means understood and can by no means perceive the varied, pluralistic, democratic ethos of Bengal”.
“In a sting, a BJP block president is saying that the get together’s Chief of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari has paid Rs 2,000 to those girls to file faux rape instances courting 7-8 months again. Are you able to think about what a concocted conspiracy that is to defame Bengal. The BJP can debate until the cows come residence that that is morphed however that is what their leaders are saying,” he mentioned.
Ms Tibrewal countered that Mamata Banerjee had initially mentioned that the victims have been mendacity and alleged the Trinamool Congress might have spent some huge cash to verify the video went viral.
“The courtroom has requested the CBI to probe this (Sandeshkhali allegations) and, in a listening to on Thursday, mentioned there are similarities between the CBI report and the victims’ affidavits. This exhibits that such incidents have taken place there. At the least 750 affidavits got and the TMC desires to say 750 persons are mendacity. Mamata Banerjee’s discuss of nari shakti (girls energy) stands uncovered right this moment,” she mentioned.
When Mr Pugalia requested pointedly whether or not one thing occurred in Sandeshkhali, Mr Dutta mentioned, “Errors have been made in Sandeshkhali. Excesses occurred. However Sandeshkhali is a land challenge. Some individuals misused the Trinamool image and grabbed land. However the politics being completed on girls’s our bodies, that by no means occurred. That has been uncovered right this moment. We now have suspended the Trinamool chief and others have been thrown out of the get together however Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh and Prajwal Revanna are nonetheless stars for the BJP.”
Mr Kumar of the CSDS mentioned the problem of Sandeshkhali has in all probability resonated extra amongst city, upper-class voters and never a lot among the many poorer courses, which is a major vote base for the Trinamool Congress. “I’m not moving into what’s true and what is not, however I do not assume it is going to have a major impression on the vote,” he mentioned.
‘Integral A part of INDIA Bloc’
To a query on why the TMC was combating alone in West Bengal and never as a part of INDIA alliance, Mr Dutta mentioned his get together is an integral a part of the INDIA bloc and is with them.
“However we’re with INC, the Indian Nationwide Congress, and never ARC, which is Adhir Ranjan Congress, as a result of Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury is the conduit pipe of the BJP in Bengal. He was BJP’s ears and eyes and now he’s working as a direct agent of the BJP,” he alleged.
“Because of this, when Mamata Banerjee, Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Sitaram Yechury are having conferences in Delhi with the only goal of defeating the BJP, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury is abusing Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress. And that’s the reason we have now mentioned that, in Bengal, the TMC is the INDIA alliance. I’ll say this on file: No matter seats the BJP goes to get within the 2024 normal elections, TMC goes to get no less than double of that,” the get together spokesperson mentioned.
Conflict Of The Titans?
On the problems in Bengal, Sanjay Kumar mentioned that whereas matters like unemployment and inflation are key, like they’re in different states, the battle in Bengal revolves round Mamata Banerjee to some extent.
Utilizing the favored title for the chief minister, ‘Didi’, Mr Kumar mentioned, “It is about whether or not you want Didi or not. Similar to the competition within the nation revolves to a big extent round Prime Minister Modi. We are sometimes requested whether or not the 2024 election is a presidential one, I say it is not. It is a referendum in a method. In Bengal, it is whether or not you’re with Didi or in opposition to her. When this sort of politics occurs, the problems additionally get buried to some extent,” he mentioned.
Mr Dasgupta mentioned that the TMC would need the main target to be on native points and mentioned the BJP can fall into the lure of claiming Mamata Banerjee needs to be eliminated. “If the BJP forgets it is a nationwide election, about Prime Minister Narendra Modi – and sadly one or two BJP individuals have forgotten that – (then it will probably fall into the lure),” he mentioned.
Senior Journalist Nishtha Gautam mentioned her evaluation from chatting with individuals of all hues in Kolkata factors to one thing unusual having occurred up to now decade. “PM Modi and Ms Banerjee have emerged as doppelgangers of one another. The state of affairs in West Bengal – Modi’s ensures vs Mamata’s ensures – it’s precisely the identical points. The expansion is occurring with out jobs, doles are being given out. If we speak about welfarism, each leaders have weaponised it very properly for electoral beneficial properties.”
“Some voters say they hate Mamata Banerjee, they do not need her however what’s the various? They do not even need Modi ji to have a stronger footprint. It is extremely unusual.”
Different consultants additionally felt that the draw of the leaders and the sturdy welfare schemes will play an enormous function however conceded that emotional components and last-minute selections can even make the choice swing on the final second.
Six of Bengal’s 42 seats have voted thus far and other people from the state will solid their ballots in all remaining phases as properly, till June 1. The outcomes might be declared three days after that.
