The narrative has been in every single place for the final couple of weeks: UConn is a juggernaut, a monster, an unstoppable power. A few of us have even written that the Huskies turning into faculty basketball’s first back-to-back nationwide champion since Florida in 2006-07 feels inevitable.
However what if we’ve all simply been overlooking the crew that has seemed to be the Huskies’ equal for the reason that second this season tipped off in November? What if we’re simply foolishly glossing over the truth that the one impediment standing between UConn and a second straight nationwide title simply so occurs to be the most important and most vital impediment within the sport?
What if we’ve been this improper all month?
Listed here are three explanation why Purdue may pull off a “shouldn’t have been that surprising” upset in Monday night time’s males’s nationwide championship sport.
1. UConn hasn’t confronted a crew this good within the final two tournaments
The numbers surrounding UConn’s final two runs via March Insanity are astounding. The Huskies haven’t simply gained 11 straight video games within the NCAA event, they’ve gained 11 straight video games within the NCAA event all by 13 factors or extra, simply protecting the unfold in every contest.
“We make a tough event look simple,” UConn head coach Danny Hurley mentioned after his crew’s 86-72 win over Alabama on Saturday. “It’s loopy.”
Right here’s the opposite factor, although: UConn additionally hasn’t confronted a No. 1 or a No. 2 seed in these 11 NCAA event video games.
Purdue isn’t simply “the following crew” on Connecticut’s postseason freeway of destruction, it’s with out query the very best crew the Huskies have confronted in an NCAA event sport underneath Hurley.
Let’s keep in mind that had the Boilermakers not misplaced within the Massive Ten event semifinals, it will have nearly actually been Matt Painter’s crew, and never Hurley’s, which might have earned the No. 1 general seed on Choice Sunday. Whereas UConn might have appeared like the very best crew for the majority of the season, it was Purdue which had the extra full resume proper up till Choice Sunday Eve.
Let’s additionally keep in mind that Purdue has been almost as dominant as UConn throughout this event. The Boilermakers have gained all however certainly one of their video games within the large dance by 12 factors or extra. Their solely “shut name” throughout this run has been a 72-66 triumph within the Elite Eight over a second-seeded Tennessee crew that’s with out query higher than any of the opponents Connecticut has needed to undergo up so far.
Purdue is No. 2 on KenPom, and would doubtless vault into the highest spot with a win this night. The earlier highest-ranked KenPom crew the Huskies have confronted within the event over the past two years? No. 8 Gonzaga in final season’s Elite Eight.
The Boilermakers have the very best participant and essentially the most distinctive problem within the sport on their roster, and in contrast to final 12 months, they’ve a bolstered supporting forged that may beat the very best groups within the nation in the event that they hyper-focus on the massive man within the center.
Nobody is aware of how UConn goes to reply within the closing minutes of a detailed sport on a stage like this, as a result of it hasn’t occurred but. Purdue is greater than able to placing the Huskies in that place for the primary time in two years.
2. Zach Edey’s presence ought to decrease the impression of UConn’s largest benefit
Tristen Newton was a First Staff All-American this season. Stephon Citadel is nearly actually going to be a lottery decide on this summer time’s NBA Draft. Cam Spencer is an murderer in key moments, and Alex Karaban has the expertise of being a starter and producing on this identical stage a 12 months in the past.
None of these guys have been UConn’s postseason MVP.
That distinction belongs to the person within the center, sophomore heart Donovan Clingan, who’s averaging 16.2 ppg, 10.8 rpg, and three.5 bpg whereas taking pictures just below 70 % from the sector within the NCAA event. The Most Excellent Participant of the East Regional has been nearly inconceivable to attain on within the paint all through the event.
Actually.
Laughable stat from our CBS Sports activities analysis crew: Grant Nelson within the second half made back-to-back contested photographs vs. Donovan Clingan after opponents had been 1-of-33 on their earlier 33 makes an attempt vs. Clingan relationship again to the Candy 16.
Laughable!
— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) April 7, 2024
The difficulty for UConn is that Clingan doesn’t current wherever close to the issue for Purdue that he presents for some other crew within the nation.
Zach Edey is greater than Clingan, and if we’re going to get on to the purpose, he’s higher than Clingan. The Husky heart will get his within the first assembly of 7-footers in a title sport since Patrick Ewing and Hakeem Olajuwon in 1984, however dominating sport six the identical means he dominated video games 1-5 seems like an impossibility.
UConn had an elite large man in Adama Sanogo final season, however he didn’t carry the Huskies to final Monday of the season the way in which that Clingan has carried this group. Jordan Hawkins was the Most Excellent Participant of the 2023 West Regional, and Newton was the participant who led the crew in scoring and rebounding within the title sport.
UConn actually has the weapons essential to make up for a dramatic dip in manufacturing from Clingan on Monday night time, but when these weapons don’t step up, there’s no security internet there for them on this spherical.
3. The previous has no bearing on this sport
I’m not attempting to say that UConn doesn’t should be favored on this sport, they do. However the truth that the unfold is 6.5 and nobody outdoors of West Lafayette appears to be giving Purdue an opportunity feels … unusual.
It’s exhausting to not suppose that the March reputations of each these packages and the narratives surrounding them aren’t enjoying an element right here.
Connecticut is the king of this stage. They ripped via the NCAA event in historic vogue final season, and are a blowout of Purdue away from finishing essentially the most dominant run to a title in March Insanity historical past. The Huskies have gained 5 nationwide championships of their historical past — all since 1999 — and are 5-0 in nationwide title video games.
Purdue, in the meantime, has a declare to the doubtful title of “greatest program to by no means win a nationwide championship.” The stigma of March disappointment has been hooked up to them for many years, however by no means as strongly as over the past three years, once they had seen their seasons ended by the hands of a 13-seed, a 15-seed and a 16-seed, respectively. The Boilermakers additionally hail from a convention that, famously, has not produced a nationwide champion since 2000.
Each predictive metric on the market has this as a sport that will likely be determined by two or three factors, and but right here we’re, with a 6.5-point unfold that many of the betting public believes UConn will simply cowl. It’s truthful to marvel if the identical can be true had Purdue gained a nationwide championship, say two or three years in the past, and been to a handful of Ultimate Fours over the past 15 seasons.
The comforting factor for Purdue followers is that completely nothing in regards to the previous goes to have any bearing on what takes place Monday night in Glendale. The Boilermakers have appeared like a worthy challenger to UConn’s throne for on daily basis of the final 5 months, and now they’ve their alternative to show it.
